Climate change has resulted in record-breaking outbreaks of fire in Africa, Asia and elsewhere in 2026, with conditions expected to grow worse as the northern hemisphere's summer approaches and El Niño weather patterns kick in, Reuters reported.
Fires from January to April have already led to unprecedented levels of damage, burning more than 150mn hectares (370.66mn acres) of land, 20% more than the previous record, according to data compiled by World Weather Attribution, a research group that studies the role played by global warming in extreme weather events.
An El Niño event is expected to develop from mid-2026, impacting global temperature and rainfall patterns, according to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO).
1 May 2026
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What is a Super El Niño?
A super El Niño is a strong version of El Niño, a climate pattern where parts of the Pacific Ocean become much warmer than normal. A Super El Niño occurs when sea surface temperatures rise at least 3.6 degrees Fahrenheit (2 degrees Celsius) above the long-term average.
In contrast, an El Niño, which means little boy in Spanish, occurs only if the temperature of the sea surface stays at least 0.9 F above the long-term average. It typically, warms central and eastern Pacific, altering atmospheric circulation and weakening monsoon winds over the Indian subcontinent.
According to Hindustan Times, regions such as West Africa, the US, Australia and India are more prone to experiencing floods, droughts, wildfires and record-breaking temperatures if a very strong El Niño develops.
Why India’s Monsoon Faces Risk
As per the trends recorded before, an El Niño can have significant impact on monsoon by weakening it. India has still seen average or above-average rains in at least five of 17 such events over the past seven decades. However, in the last six El Niño years, India has received below-average rains
According to Reuters, weak El Niño led to a sharp drop in India's rainfall to 78.2% of a long-period average in 2009 – the lowest in 37 years. Weather models suggest the 2026 El Niño could be strong.
El Niño events can occur every two to seven years, on average and lasts around nine to twelve months. However, they don’t occur on a regular schedule, revealed the US National Ocean Service (NOAA) report, adding, El Niño occurs more frequently than La Niña.
Why Monsoon Matters To India
Monsoon accounts for about 70% of India’s rainfall and is vital for the country’s agriculture, which contributes roughly 18% to India’s economy of almost $4trn and supports nearly half of its 1.5bn people, reported Reuters. Below-normal rainfall could damage crops such as rice, cotton and soybeans, and also impact winter crops like wheat and rapeseed due to low soil moisture.
A weak monsoon may also lead the government to restrict farm exports, as it did during the 2023 El Niño, and raise imports of edible oils such as palm oil and soyoil.
A weaker monsoon could also hit power generation by reducing hydropower output, which accounts for about 6% of the mix.
The weak monsoon could also impact power generation by reducing the output of hydropower. Citing the Central Electricity Authority (CEA) report published on April 24, 2026, Saur Energy International reported that solar energy is at the forefront of the renewable energy sector with 9.46%, with large hydro close behind at about 9% of total power generation for FY26.
