IMD forecasts 2026 monsoon at 92% of LPA, below normal levels.
El Nino conditions likely to weaken rainfall across most parts of India.
Lower rainfall could impact crops, inflation and overall economic growth prospects.
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) on April 13 stated in a news release that the southwest monsoon in 2026 is cumulatively likely to be ‘below normal’ at 92% of the Long Period Average (LPA). If the forecast comes true, it will be the first time since 2023 that India has "below normal" total monsoon rains.
The met department said that the forecast, which has a model error margin of plus or minus 5%, is mostly based on the fact that El Nino conditions will develop between June and September. It also said that most of India, except for some areas in the Northeast, Northwest and South Peninsular regions, will probably get less rain than usual this year.
1 April 2026
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According to the IMD news release, the LPA for the four-month monsoon season (for the period 1971-2020) is 87 centimetres, which means if the forecast is accurate, the all-India average rainfall this monsoon season could be around 80.04 centimetres.
Cumulative all-India rainfall between 90% and 95% of the LPA is considered ‘below normal’ by the IMD.
The department also said there is a 35% probability of the southwest monsoon being ‘deficient’ this year (less than 90% of LPA). There is a 31% chance of it being ‘below normal’ (90-95% of LPA), while there is a 34% probability of it being ‘normal’, ‘above normal’, or ‘excess’ taken together.
Past data shows that "below-normal" monsoon years don't always mean low kharif output, as long as the timing, distribution, and spread of rainfall are even. But crops like pulses and oilseeds, which are mostly grown in areas that don't get a lot of water, are in danger.
Lower output of pulses and oilseeds could increase the import bill for these commodities, impact food inflation, and potentially slow overall economic growth.
The monsoon, which delivers more than 70% of India’s annual precipitation, is considered the lifeline of the country’s agriculture sector. However, irrigation coverage has improved in recent years — from 49.3% to 55% of the Gross Cropped Area (GCA) between FY16 and FY21.
In its news release, the IMD also said that, apart from El Nino, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), which is responsible for influencing the southwest monsoon. This phenomena is likely to turn positive toward the end of the season, which could have a beneficial impact on rainfall.
In addition, snow cover in the Northern Hemisphere during the past three months (January to March) was slightly below normal, which also has an impact on the monsoon.
“Winter and spring snow cover extent over the Northern Hemisphere, as well as Eurasia, generally has an inverse relationship with the subsequent Indian summer monsoon rainfall,” the IMD news relase stated.
Global Climate Warning Signs
According to The Guardian, El Nino is very likely to happen this summer, and it could even become a strong or "super" event.
Experts said that these kinds of conditions can change rainfall patterns around the world, causing droughts in places like India, making extreme weather worse, and raising global temperatures.
On April 9, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) also announced its policy rates on April 8, saying that El Nino could be a threat to inflation. The warning came after Skymet Weather predicted that this climate pattern could cause India to have less rain than usual during the monsoon season in 2026.
