India’s monsoon may fall below normal in 2026 due El Nino.
Drought risk rises with 30% probability and uneven monthly rainfall.
July and August rains likely weak, impacting agriculture and water availability.
India’s cumulative monsoon rainfall is likely to be 6% below normal at 94% of the Long Period Average (LPA) due to El Niño.
The weather agency further reported that monsoon rains in 2026 are expected to be 817 millimetres on average across the four months, with a model error of plus and minus 5%, reported Business Standard.
1 April 2026
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This year will also see a 30% probability of ‘drought’ in the country and 40% chance of rains being ‘below normal’ this year. The state-run Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) is expected to release its first official forecast for the 2026 monsoon later this month.
What is LPA
LPA of rainfall is the rainfall recorded over a particular region for a given interval (like month or season) average over a long period like 30years, 50-years etc. It acts as a benchmark while forecasting the quantitative rainfall for that region for a specific month or season. For example, LPA of south west monsoon rainfall over Kerala for the months June, July, August and September are 556mm, 659mm, 427mm and 252mm respectively. Current LPA of all India south west monsoon rainfall based on the average rainfall over the period 1961 -2010 is 880.6mm.
Skymet Monthly Rainfall Forecast
Citing Business Standard, Skymet stated that June rains are expected to be 101% of the Long Period Average (LPA), with a 40% chance of it being normal and 40% chance of it being ‘below normal’. The LPA of June rains is 165.3 millimetres.
Monsoon rains in July are likely to be ‘below normal’ at 95% of the LPA, with a 40% chance of it being ‘normal’ and ‘below normal’ equally across the country. In addition, the LPA for July is reported to be 280.5 millimetres.
In August, the private weather forecasting agency said that monsoon rains are again expected to be ‘below normal’ at 92% of the LPA. The LPA for the month of August is 254.9 millimetres.
The probability of August 2026 having a ‘below normal’ monsoon is almost 60%, according to Skymet.
El Nino Weakens Monsoon
El Nino conditions are typically associated with weaker monsoon performance in India, as warming in the central and eastern Pacific disrupts atmospheric circulation patterns. According to the India Meteorological Department, El Nino years often lead to reduced rainfall and higher temperatures across large parts of the country.
The World Meteorological Organization also noted that El Nino events can increase the likelihood of droughts in South Asia, affecting agriculture, water availability and rural incomes. Given India’s heavy reliance on monsoon rains for nearly half of its farmland, even a marginal rainfall deficit can have significant economic and food security implications.
