GLP-1 genericization may cut drug prices ~75% by mid-2026, widening access
Bernstein: food-delivery growth likely normalises to 12–14% from ~20%
Swiggy and Zomato exposed, GLP-1 users reduce AOV and order frequency
Everything, as it turns out. Prices of Ozempic and similar appetite-suppressing medications are expected to crash by 75% or more by mid-2026 when their patent protections expire, making them accessible to millions of Swiggy and Zomato users in India. This, argues the brokerage firm, is likely to have a meaningful impact on the speed at which these food delivery platforms are growing.
The report argues that it will be increasingly difficult for the industry to sustain a 20% growth in net order value (NOV), and instead models a baseline normalization of food delivery growth of around 12–14%, compared with a more optimistic 16–18%. The genericization of these drugs raises the likelihood of the lower outcome, it warned.
Price Drop, Behavior Alter
Ozempic is a brand name for semaglutide, used to manage blood sugar levels and for weight loss. It works by copying a natural hormone in the body (GLP-1 or glucagon-like peptide-1), which has two functions — release insulin and slow down how fast food leaves the stomach. Because of the latter effect, the person feels full longer and eats less.
Bernstein, in its recent India E-Commerce report, notes that oral GLP-1 medicines are expected to become significantly cheaper in India following patent expiries and the entry of generics around mid-2026, substantially widening access and accelerating adoption.
If GLP-1 uptake reaches around 10% of urban adults within five years, aggregate calorie consumption could decline by approximately 0.5% per year, totaling to 2–2.5% over five years, it points out.
The report uses this calorie metric to connect GLP-1 adoption to reduced demand for indulgent, high–average order value (AOV) items such as desserts, fried fast food, and oversized portions. While it does not translate this directly into a specific revenue estimate, it views the resulting calorie decline as a meaningful drag on growth for these “indulgent” segments.
The firm refers to US evidence and its proprietary consumer survey to document concrete shifts.
It states about 66% of GLP-1 users report eating “a lot less junk food.” Among those who still consume fast food, approximately 43% say they order smaller portions, and about 39% skip desserts entirely. The report further notes that long-term GLP-1 users consume roughly 20–25% fewer calories on average to achieve or maintain weight loss.
These behavioural changes, like less demand for high-fat/fried foods and sugary snacks and a tilt toward protein-rich, customisable, low-calorie meals, form the mechanistic link between drug adoption and lower food-delivery demand, it notes.
Why are Swiggy & Zomato Particularly Exposed?
Bernstein highlights that the early adopters most likely to use GLP-1s are higher-income, digitally savvy, health-conscious urban adults. These are the very customers who disproportionately drive order frequency and average order values (AOV) on food-delivery platforms.
Because of this overlap, even modest penetration can disproportionately reduce AOV, order frequency, and shift mix away from high-margin fried, dessert and quick-service offerings toward lower-AOV, health-oriented meals.
Bernstein outlines three immediate effects that food aggregators should anticipate. The first is a lower average order value (AOV) as customers opt for smaller portions. The second is a decline in the frequency of indulgent orders among heavy users. Lastly, platforms are expected to increase investments in health-focused menus, subscription-based wellness plans, and cloud-kitchen partnerships that specialize in lean, protein-rich meals.
What Can Platforms Do?
Bernstein recommends a range of strategic responses to food delivery platforms. It includes accelerating health-focused menu curation and marketing, developing subscription or meal-plan products to monetize recurring lower–AOV orders, expanding relevance across additional day-parts such as breakfast and lunch staples, shortening delivery times to make low–AOV offerings viable, and partnering with or incubating cloud kitchens that specialize in lean, protein-rich meals.
However, the report cautions that such initiatives typically require upfront investments or incentives, meaning margins may remain range-bound even if the revenue mix shifts in a favorable direction.
