Bernstein initiates Outperform on Swiggy and Eternal; Swiggy is preferred pick
Assigns ₹570 target for Swiggy and ₹390 target for Eternal
Quick commerce a ~$35bn SAM; combined serviceable market about $80bn
Bernstein has initiated coverage on Eternal and Swiggy with Outperform ratings, placing Swiggy as its preferred pick and assigning target prices of ₹390 (Eternal) and ₹570 (Swiggy).
The research house argues both platforms are best positioned to capture a combined, serviceable B2C market across quick commerce, food delivery, dining-out and events of roughly $80 billion (FY25 base), giving the duo several years of high-growth optionality.
31 October 2025
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$35Bn Quick Comm Opportunity
Bernstein’s base case forecasts a meaningful upside if these adjacent markets scale as expected. Quick commerce (QC) alone is modelled to be an approximately $35bn serviceable addressable market by FY30 under central assumptions.
Taken together, Bernstein’s SAM implies a 4 to 5x revenue expansion opportunity by FY30 for the companies that win or capture meaningful share across QC, food delivery (FD), out-of-home and events.
Food delivery remains the primary cash engine for platforms but Bernstein flags that FD’s growth comes from dine-in. Annual growth is now below 20% and sustaining around 16–18% will require product upgrades (faster fulfilment, premium/health options, smaller-AOV ordering).
By contrast, QC addresses an affluent, time-poor urban cohort and offers attractive economics at scale, but it is fiercely competitive and not a pure winner-takes-all market. Bernstein expects leaders such as Blinkit, Instamart (Swiggy) and Zepto to be the top players, with profit pools more broadly distributed than in FD.
Why Bernstein Favours Eternal & Swiggy?
Eternal is rated Outperform for its leadership position across both FD and QC, a stronger cash position and the ability to reinvest to unlock higher-ROI adjacencies (dining-out, events, B2B).
Bernstein’s sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) valuation yields a ₹390 target, using premium multiples on core FD and Blinkit economics. Swiggy earns the top-pick tag because Bernstein sees Instamart scaling with measured store sizes and disciplined rollout.
Its model suggests Instamart could reach roughly 65% of Blinkit’s GOV and deliver about 30% of Blinkit-like adjusted EBITDA by F30. Swiggy’s SOTP produces a ₹570 target.
Optionalities & Risks
Bernstein highlights high-ROI adjacencies, dining-out, events/ticketing, B2B distribution/logistics and advertising (which it calls “the new oil”), as key levers that can meaningfully lift long-term returns if platforms execute. Progress on these lines could convert FD cash generation into a broader “lifestyle concierge” business for affluent consumers.
Primary risks include regulatory restrictions (e-commerce/1P exposure and GST/retail rules), delivery rider and two-wheeler supply constraints, capital access amid heavy investment cycles, and structural demand shocks (for example, potential GLP-1 drug impacts on food ordering).
Bernstein stresses sensitivity to TAM/SAM inputs, MAU/DAU, AOV, order frequency and labor assumptions, meaning outcomes move materially with small changes in those drivers.
