US intelligence had warned of possible Iranian retaliation, contradicting Trump’s statement that the strikes were “unexpected.”
Pre-war briefings highlighted risks including attacks on Gulf allies and disruption of the Strait of Hormuz.
While West Asian states did not seek war, many now want the US to neutralise Iran’s threat to key oil routes.
US President Donald Trump stated that Iran’s retaliation against other West Asian countries came as “a surprise” and is now facing direct contradiction from within his own system, Reuters reported. According to the report, citing a US official and two other sources familiar with the intelligence assessments, pre-war briefings had explicitly outlined the risk of Iranian retaliation, including strikes on US allies in the Gulf and disruption to global oil routes.
While assessments did not guarantee retaliation, it was “certainly on the list of potential outcomes,” the report quoted a source as saying. However, Trump’s recent statements have suggested otherwise, with the president on Monday saying that no one expected Iran to strike Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Bahrain and Kuwait. “Nobody expected that. We were shocked,” Trump said, though intelligence reports paint a different picture.
2 March 2026
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The US and Israel launched a combined military strike on February 28 and, according to the Reuters report, US intelligence assessments showed that attacking Iran could trigger a broader regional conflict.
Tehran could retaliate against other West Asian capitals, especially if they were seen as backing US action; it could attempt to disrupt or close the Strait of Hormuz; and Israeli plans to target top Iranian officials could provoke direct retaliation against US assets.
The report stated that these scenarios were part of formal intelligence briefings to policymakers, including the president.
Tehran has already attacked airports, ports, oil infrastructure and commercial hubs across six West Asian countries with missiles and drones, and has brought the Strait of Hormuz close to a complete shutdown.
The report also highlights the widening gap between Trump’s claims to justify the war and intelligence assessments. The administration earlier claimed that Iran was close to developing a missile capable of hitting the US mainland and could build a nuclear bomb within weeks. However, these assertions were not backed by US intelligence assessments.
Gulf States Push US to Neutralise Iran
A separate report showed that other West Asian nations didn’t push the US into war, but now many don’t want it to stop before removing Iran’s threat to the Strait of Hormuz. Sources and Arab diplomats were quoted as saying that Washington is pressuring them to join the US-Israeli war, suggesting that the president wants to demonstrate regional backing for his actions to build international legitimacy as well as domestic support.
