Motilal Oswal initiated coverage on Groww with a "Buy" rating
Groww holds a dominant 26.8% market share of NSE active clients
Revenue projected to double by FY28, supported by a 66% EBITDA margin expansion
Motilal Oswal has started coverage on Billionbrains Garage Ventures, the holding company behind retail broker Groww, with a “Buy” rating and a one-year target price of ₹185, about 19% above current levels.
However, in the bull case scenario, it has pegged the target price at ₹260, an upside of 67% from the current share price. On Wednesday, the stock was trading at ₹163.66, up ₹8.35, or 5.38% from the previous session. Yesterday, the stock was trading at ₹159.70 on the NSE.
1 January 2026
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The brokerage, in its latest report, stated that the company is well placed to compound earnings on the back of product penetration and more affluent customers. The app has become the country’s largest retail broking platform by NSE active clients, holding a 26.8% share as of November 2025, roughly nine percentage points ahead of the next competitor.
"The initiation rests on a structural under-penetration thesis for India’s capital markets. Demat penetration is still low (around 14% versus about 62% in the US), leaving a large addressable retail pool," the brokerage firm said.
It noted that strong secular trends, rising cash ADTO and expanding derivatives activity historically, that favour low-cost, tech-first brokers. It also observes that Groww’s affluent cohort is growing faster than the platform average, which should improve monetisation per user over time.
Groww’s Financial Growth Outlook
Motilal Oswal also pointed out that Groww's revenue base tripled between FY23 and FY25, while forecasting that its revenue is expected to roughly double again over FY25–28 as new, higher-margin products roll out.
The analyst noted that Groww is building additional growth levers to diversify revenues and improve earnins quality.
It highlighted that the company's other segments, including expansion of the margin trading facility business, the growth of its commodities franchise, the increase in the loan against shares portfolio and the entry into wealth management, could reduce dependence on the broking segment.
The analyst further stated that the company's share of total revenues is projected to fall from 85% in FY25 to about 67% by FY28 as margin trading, commodities, lending against securities and wealth management scale.
"We believe the company’s EBITDA margin will expand meaningfully to 66.4% by FY28, backed by the sustained momentum of core broking revenue, scale-up of non-broking revenue, and robust cost efficiency," it said.
Groww is currently priced at about 22x its estimated FY28 earnings, well below global peers like Robinhood, which trades at nearly 40x CY27 earnings.
As it gradually reduces its reliance on broking, which contributed roughly 85% of revenue in FY25, versus 55–60% for Robinhood and expands into margin funding, lending and wealth products, the analyst said, while expecting that this valuation gap may shrink over the medium term.
Groww's Q2 Results
The recently-listed brokerage firm reported that its consolidated profit attributable for the September 2025 quarter surged 12% year-on-year to ₹471.33 crore, as compared to ₹420.16 crore in the corresponding quarter previous year.
However, the company’s operating revenue slipped to ₹1,018.74 crore, which marks a 9.5% decline from ₹1,125.38 crore recorded in the same period of 2024.
Its total consolidated expenses for the September quarter fell significantly to ₹432.59 crore, down by approximately 27% from ₹589.79 crore in the year-ago period. As per the results, the company's employee-related costs came in at ₹123.76 crore, while spending under other expense heads reached ₹291.01 crore.
During the first six months of FY26, the company generated ₹2,126.18 crore in operating revenue and earned ₹849.71 crore in net profit. For perspective, the full FY25 (ending March 2025) had delivered ₹3,901.72 crore in revenue and ₹1,824.37 crore in profit.
The company released its first quarterly results after making a debut on Indian stock markets in November 2025. Groww had made a market debut on November 12, listing at ₹114 on the BSE, a 14% premium to its issue price. The optimism continued in the initial sessions, with the stock soaring nearly 94% from its IPO level within five trading days to hit ₹193.91.
