As Hormuz Shuts, India Turns Back to Russian Oil in Big Way

India's crude oil imports from Russia climbed to a nine-month high of 1.96mn barrels per day in March, as the war between the US-Israeli combine and Iran effectively shut down flows through the Strait of Hormuz and forced Indian refiners to scramble for alternative supplies, Business Standard reported, citing data from maritime intelligence firm Kpler.

The rebound is stark. Russian imports had fallen sharply in the months leading up to the conflict — down 32% year-on-year (YoY) in February to around 1mn barrels per day, nearly half the peak level recorded last June — as Indian refiners began diversifying away from Moscow.

Iraq had overtaken Russia as India's largest single crude supplier in February, with imports from Baghdad rising to two-year highs of 1.18mn barrels per day. Saudi Arabia was close behind at roughly 998,000 barrels per day, its highest level since December 2021. West Asia overall share of India's crude imports had climbed to nearly 59%, the highest since August 2022.

That calculus changed abruptly on 28th February, when the US-Israeli assault on Iran began and Hormuz traffic ground to a halt.

Indian refiners moved quickly once Washington granted a 30-day sanctions waiver allowing countries to purchase Russian oil and petroleum products stranded at sea — a concession in place until 11th April.

Purchases accelerated sharply through March, and Indian refiners have reportedly secured around 60mn barrels of Russian crude for April delivery, a substantial increase on recent months. Angola has also emerged as a significant alternative supplier as India seeks to fill the gap left by disrupted Gulf flows.

Sumit Ritolia, lead research analyst at Kpler, told Reuters that imports had rebounded to around 1.8 mn barrels per day and could reach between 2 mn and 2.2 mn barrels per day in March — figures that would represent a near-doubling from February's trough in the space of a single month.