The agriculture ministry on Sunday asserted that India's wheat production for 2025-26 crop year remains "stable and resilient despite localised damage" caused by unseasonal rainfall and hailstorms, even as an industry body pegged output significantly below the government's earlier forecast.
The Roller Flour Millers' Federation of India (RFFI) on April 24 projected wheat output at 110.65 million tonnes for the 2025-26 crop year (July-June), marginally higher than 109.63 million tonnes produced in 2024-25, after factoring in recent weather damage.
The projection is well short of the ministry's pre-weather estimate of 120.21 million tonnes, which itself was higher than 117.94 million tonnes recorded in the previous year.
1 April 2026
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Food Secretary Sanjeev Chopra sought to bridge the gap between the two estimates. "While the federation has estimated wheat production of 110 million tonnes, the figure given by the agriculture ministry prior to the rainfall is 120 million tonnes. The reality will be somewhere between 110 and 120 million tonnes," he had said.
In a statement, the ministry described the current wheat season as "mixed but resilient," shaped by both climatic adversities and strong adaptive measures undertaken by farmers.
Wheat was sown on an estimated area of 33.4 million hectares this season, with no incidence of insect pests or diseases reported. Early and timely sowing led to an increase in acreage over the previous year.
However, unusually high temperatures in February exposed the crop to heat stress, reducing the grain-filling duration and impacting yields. Untimely rainfall and hailstorms at maturity further caused localised damage to grain quality and yield in some areas.
The ministry cited several factors expected to offset the weather-related losses.
An additional 0.6 million hectares was planted during 2025-26, which the ministry said would partially compensate for localised losses. Early and timely sowing allowed the crop to escape terminal heat stress during the critical grain-filling stage.
A higher varietal replacement rate (VRR) has also accelerated adoption of high-yielding, climate-resilient and disease-resistant seed varieties better equipped to withstand heat and biotic stresses, the ministry noted.
Weed infestation was also reported to be low during crop growth stages.
"It is anticipated that the adverse effects of weather anomalies will be largely compensated by increased area, early sowing, and improved varietal adoption, thereby supporting stable national wheat production as compared to the crop season of 2024-25," the ministry said.
Procurement data from key wheat-growing states pointed to healthy production levels on the ground.
In Haryana, wheat arrivals at mandis have already surpassed the government's procurement target of 75 lakh tonnes. with 56.13 lakh tonne already purchased -- an increase of around 9 lakh tonne over the same period last year.
Madhya Pradesh, meanwhile, has revised its procurement target upward from 78 lakh tonne to 100 lakh tonne following a request from the state government, citing higher-than-expected production.
Maharashtra's wheat output for 2025-26 is estimated around 22.90 lakh tonnes, a steady increase over recent years. Steady inflows have been reported from the Marathwada and Vidarbha regions as of late April.
"While localised weather-related impacts have been observed, the overall wheat production scenario for 2025-26 remains stable and resilient, supported by increased acreage, improved agronomic practices and enhanced varietal adoption," the ministry reiterated.
