• Mixed Q4 expected with steady revenue, weaker profit.
• Telecom and retail to offset O2C, upstream weakness.
• Margins volatile on crude swings, weak petrochemical spreads.
India’s largest conglomerate, Reliance Industries, is set to announce its Q4FY26 results on April 24, with analysts forecasting a quarter marked by contrasting trends across its business segments.
In the previous quarter (Q3FY26), the company reported a steady operational performance, supported largely by its consumer-facing businesses.
1 April 2026
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Brokerage estimates suggest revenue growth will remain resilient, largely driven by consumer-facing verticals such as telecom and retail. However, profitability is expected to come under pressure due to subdued performance in the oil-to-chemicals (O2C) and upstream businesses. Net profit projections vary widely—from around ₹16,200 crore to ₹23,053 crore—indicating uncertainty around earnings momentum.
While some optimism exists, particularly from YES Securities which sees marginal profit growth, most brokerages including ICICI Securities, Nuvama, and Emkay Research expect a year-on-year (YoY) decline in earnings. This divergence reflects the dependence on segment-specific performance rather than broad-based growth.
Alongside the results, the board may also consider a dividend recommendation for FY26.
Revenue Steady, Margins Under Pressure
Topline growth is expected to remain in the mid-to-high single digits for most estimates, though a few analysts flag the possibility of a slight decline. Telecom arm Jio is likely to be a key driver, supported by subscriber additions and improving average revenue per user (ARPU). Retail is also expected to show gradual recovery, though not yet at full strength.
In contrast, the energy vertical remains a concern. Weak petrochemical spreads and volatile crude prices are likely to weigh on the O2C segment, while upstream operations may continue to see muted performance. Given the scale of these businesses, their softness could offset gains elsewhere.
On the profitability side, operating performance is expected to remain broadly stable, with EBITDA showing only modest YoY growth. Margins, however, are likely to stay under pressure due to input cost volatility and weaker downstream realizations, with analysts expecting compression both sequentially and annually.
