CEA Nageswaran projected GDP growth could exceed 7% if US trade deal is finalized
Economic Survey pegs FY27 growth at 6.8%–7.2%, maintaining resilience despite global trade volatility
India's potential growth rate was upgraded to 7%, rising from the 6.5% estimate held three years ago
India’s Chief Economic Advisor V Anantha Nageswaran while speaking at Economic Survey 2025–26 press conference on Thursday, said that a trade deal with the US could bolster the country’s GDP growth rate beyond 7% or further.
In the conference, Nageswaran was asked about a statement in the Economic Survey report that talked about “India’s ongoing trade negotiations with the US” concluding during the year, “which could help reduce uncertainty on the external front.”
1 January 2026
Get the latest issue of Outlook Business
On that note, the question inquired what will be the impact of trade tariffs on India’s GDP?
Answering the question, Nageswaran said that when the government projected a 6.5% growth rate three years ago, they had assumed realistic export growth prospects, even factoring in how global trade disputes evolve.
He further noted that over the past three years, however, India has signed several free trade agreements, the most recent being with the European Union.
As a result, he said, the current 7% growth outlook largely remains unaffected by the resolution of tariff-related issues, especially since the timelines around them remain uncertain. At the same time, a favourable outcome on tariffs would further strengthen the prospects of achieving growth of 7% or higher.
“The 7% growth rate doesn’t necessarily depend on the tariff situation resolution because we don’t yet know the timelines attached to it. However, if it happens it will further bolster the chances of achieving 7% or better,” Nageswaran said.
Economic Survey Growth Rate Projections
The Economic Survey projects India’s growth to range between 6.8% and 7.2% for the 2026–27 financial year, while maintaining a cautious tone amid an evolving global landscape. The Survey was tabled in Parliament today by Union Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman. Chief Economic Advisor V Anantha Nageswaran is expected to address the media shortly to detail the report’s assessment of India’s fiscal health.
“The cumulative impact of policy reforms over recent years appears to have lifted the economy’s medium-term growth potential closer to 7%,” the Survey said. “With domestic drivers playing a dominant role and macroeconomic stability well anchored, the balance of risks around growth remains broadly even. The outlook, therefore, is one of steady growth amid global uncertainty, requiring caution but not pessimism.”
