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Trend

Is there more downside in store for the Sensex?
JP Morgan's Bharat Iyer and ASK Investment's Prateek Agrawal on what’s in store for the market

ASK Investment Managers' Prateek Agrawal and JP Morgan's Bharat Iyer debate on what's in store for the market

Prateek Agrawal, business head and CIO, ASK Investment Managers

Things are looking positive for the Indian economy. If crude prices remain low, it will be a big postive. Our market has been hit because a chunk of inflows had come into the country via emerging market funds. However, emerging markets as an asset class is not performing well due to weak conditions in China, Brazil and Russia.

Additionally, the currencies are also not doing well. The losses that investors had to bear through this have been huge. So, it is pretty natural that emerging markets are currently out of favour. However, conditions at home seem postitive. Earnings growth should slowly start recovering and look better in the coming quarter. Besides, valuations also seem reasonable. Some good-quality names are available at attractive prices. So, this is a great time to buy. Except for short-term tactical trades, the overall trend in the market is looking largely stable.

 

Bharat Iyer, MD and head of research-India, JP Morgan

The recent correction in Indian markets has been driven largely by the selloff in global equities as financial markets have increasingly become more inter-linked. Consequently, our market remains vulnerable to any volatility in global markets. Locally, the policy calendar looks relatively light over the near term as the monsoon session of Parliament is over. But we should see a build-up on this front into the last quarter of the calendar year.

The RBI's monetary policy is just round the corner and expectations are building up for a rate cut in the backdrop of modest growth and soft inflation. On the earnings front, the first half of the year will be difficult, with a modest pick-up in the second half. The base effect in the second half will be benign and we should also see a more complete pass-through of lower input costs and interest rates. In essence, we could see a marginal pullback.

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