Trend

Is the worst over or is there more downside in store on Dalal Street?

In 16 sessions, the benchmark index has corrected 10% from its all-time closing high of 29,682 in January

(L-R) Rajesh Cheruvu; Prateek Agrawal

Rajesh Cheruvu CIO, RBS India

I think the markets might grind at current levels and could even see a further 3-4% correction. This is because over the past one year, markets have rallied in excess of 30% on the back of over $20 billion inflows. At the same time, markets have already priced in all the good news — the new government, lower inflation, rate cuts and low commodity prices. There are no fresh triggers for now. Even earnings are showing no signs of recovery. Most market participants are expecting earnings to recover in the second half of FY16. Though things should look up from the September quarter, a meaningful recovery is still some time away. With debt-laden balance sheets and banks still hesitant to lend, leveraged corporates will find it hard to raise capital. The government also needs to clear the land acquisition bill. While, it has announced major spending on roads and rail projects, the government needs to take more measures to revive the economy.

Prateek Agrawal Business head and CIO, ASK Investment Managers

The markets have lost their momentum as several negative developments have cropped up one aft er the other. Concerns over the Chinese housing market, the situation in Greece and uncertainty about the applicability of MAT on FIIs have hurt sentiments. However, all the negatives seem to be priced in. This is a good time to enter the markets and pick up beaten-down quality stocks, as valuations appear reasonable post-correction. While, the ongoing season has not been great, we feel that FY16 numbers would look good. Q2FY16 is likely to be better than the same period last fiscal owing to higher government spending, while the third and fourth quarters would get the benefit of low-base in FY15. Give the large grain stocks and the fact that weak monsoons lead to a less than 5% impact on foodgrain production, there is no reason for worry. And with Chinese, Russian, the US and European markets doing well, we will get our groove back in no time.