MSCI may add 12 stocks, remove 3, triggering about $2.3 billion in passive flows.
Groww, Adani Green, Adani Energy top inclusion bets; Astral faces highest exclusion risk.
MSCI review is due on August 12; changes become effective from August 31.
The upcoming MSCI India Standard Index rebalancing, scheduled to be announced after market hours on August 12, could trigger passive inflows of about $2.3 billion, with as many as 12 stocks likely to be added and three facing exclusion, according to a report by JM Financial.
The changes, if announced, will come into effect from August 31, 2026, and are expected to drive significant passive fund flows as global index-tracking funds rebalance their portfolios.
4 July 2026
Get the latest issue of Outlook Business
High-Probability Inclusion Candidates
Among fresh entrants to the MSCI India Standard Index, Adani Green Energy, Groww and Adani Energy Solutions have emerged as the strongest candidates for inclusion.
JM Financial estimates that Groww could attract passive inflows of around $821 million if included, the highest among the potential additions. Adani Green Energy is expected to see inflows of about $773 million, while Adani Energy Solutions could receive around $342 million.
Ather Energy has been classified as a medium-probability inclusion candidate and could attract approximately $244 million in passive inflows if it makes the cut. The brokerage said its inclusion will depend on continued improvement in its free-float adjusted market capitalisation during the remaining observation period.
Lenskart and Steel Authority of India (SAIL) have been categorised as low-probability inclusion candidates, with estimated passive inflows of about $176 million and $170 million, respectively.
Small Cap Stocks Eye Standard Index Upgrade
JM Financial also expects several companies currently part of the MSCI India Small Cap Index to migrate to the Standard Index.
Laurus Labs and Biocon have been identified as high-probability candidates for an upgrade, while Coforge has been placed in the medium-probability category. Glenmark Pharma and Uno Minda are considered low-probability candidates, with their inclusion dependent on sustained improvement in free-float adjusted market capitalisation.
Among these stocks, Coforge is expected to attract the highest passive inflows of around $567 million, followed closely by Laurus Labs at $554 million. Glenmark Pharma could receive about $330 million, while Biocon and Uno Minda are estimated to attract $285 million and $206 million, respectively.
Three Stocks Face Exclusion Risk
On the other hand, Astral has emerged as the strongest candidate for exclusion from the MSCI India Standard Index.
SBI Cards has been identified as a medium-probability exclusion candidate, while Balkrishna Industries is considered a low-probability candidate for removal.
If excluded, Balkrishna Industries could witness passive outflows of around $167 million, followed by SBI Cards at $146 million and Astral at approximately $138 million, according to JM Financial.
The MSCI India Standard Index is widely tracked by global passive funds and exchange-traded funds (ETFs). Any inclusion generally leads to fresh inflows from index-tracking funds, while exclusions often result in passive outflows as funds rebalance their portfolios.
As a result, stocks expected to be added or removed from the index typically witness heightened trading activity in the run-up to the review and around the implementation date.
The August review will be announced on August 12 after market hours, with the revised index constituents becoming effective from August 31, 2026.
