Peter Schiff Sees Gold at $11,400, Calls Dip Biggest Opportunity Since 2008

Peter Schiff, chief economist and global strategist at Euro Pacific Capital, has used the gold's bruising retreat from its January peak to lay out what he believes is the most compelling buying opportunity since the 2008 global financial crisis — and has put a price target of $11,400 on the table. The sharpest pullback in decades has done nothing to his conviction.

Gold hit an all-time high of $5,608 in January 2026 before sliding sharply, and is currently trading around $4,462 per ounce, down roughly 27% from that peak. The metal is, nonetheless, still up nearly 48% compared to a year ago.

The 2008 Parallel

Schiff's bull case is based on a historical comparison of global financial crisis. "In the early months of the 2008 GFC, gold crashed 32%, about 40% of its prior bull-market gain. After gold bottomed, it surged 178% over the next three years. Gold nearly hit $4,100 today, down 27%, about 40% of its gain since $2K. A 178% surge from that low puts gold at $11,400," he said in a post on X.

The numbers line up almost exactly — gold's current drawdown from its January peak mirrors the percentage decline seen at the very start of the 2008 crash, right before the metal embarked on one of the greatest bull runs in its history.

War is Bullish or Bearish

With markets jittery over whether a ceasefire or peace deal might strip gold of its geopolitical premium, Schiff pushed back firmly. "If the war ends soon, that's negative for gold. But not enough to offset all that's positive. Plus, the government will still pay to replenish the weapons used and rebuild what it destroyed. So there'll be larger deficits and more inflation than if the war had never been fought," he explained.

He had made a related argument even before the current drawdown began as well where he noted that being bullish on gold before the war should be more bullish now. "The war means soaring US budget deficits, skyrocketing food and energy prices, recession, rising unemployment, collapsing stock, bond and real estate prices, increased terrorism, and a financial crisis," he added further.

Misreading the Fed

Schiff has also aimed at the logic underpinning the sell-off, arguing that traders are making a fundamental error in dumping gold on fears that persistent inflation will keep the Federal Reserve from cutting interest rates. "Selling gold because rising inflation will keep the Fed from cutting interest rates, when rates are already too low, makes no sense," he wrote. "Falling real rates are bullish for gold. It's the stock market that needs rate cuts."

He predicts that once higher rates push the economy into recession, the Fed will reverse course, cutting rates and resuming quantitative easing, a sequence that would be powerfully bullish for gold.

Trading Economics puts gold at around $4,499 by the end of this quarter and $4,879 over the next twelve months. Schiff, characteristically, considers such projections to be wildly off the mark.