Donald Trump may not force reopening of Strait of Hormuz immediately.
US strategy shifts to weakening Iran militarily and using diplomacy.
Fuel prices rise as blockade continues to disrupt global energy markets.
Donald Trump is reportedly prepared to wind down the US military campaign against Iran without forcing the Strait of Hormuz back open, willing to leave the resolution of the world's most critical oil chokepoint for a later stage of diplomacy rather than extend a war that is already testing his self-imposed timeline.
The Wall Street Journal reported citing administration officials, that Trump and his inner circle had concluded that a mission to reopen the waterway physically would push the operation well beyond the four-to-six week window the President had set for himself. The decision is to concentrate on degrading Iran's missile capabilities and naval forces, then use diplomatic pressure to bring Tehran to the table over the strait.
2 March 2026
Get the latest issue of Outlook Business
The consequences of that calculation are already visible at the petrol pump. The US national average retail price of gasoline crossed $4 a gallon for the first time in more than three years on Monday, according to price-tracking service GasBuddy, as Iran's near-total blockade of the Hormuz route continues to squeeze global energy markets.
Trump recently claimed "great progress" in negotiations to end the war, but simultaneously warned that if a deal was not reached and the strait was not immediately opened for business, the US would move to destroy Iranian power plants, oil wells, Kharg Island and potentially desalination plants — targets he said had been deliberately spared thus far. The threat sits awkwardly alongside the reported willingness to leave Hormuz closed for now, but the administration appears to be using the prospect of further strikes as leverage in talks even as it quietly scales back its military objectives.
Complicating any path to a deal is the damage the US-Israeli campaign has done to Iran's own decision-making infrastructure. The New York Times reported on Monday that the systematic elimination of Iranian leadership figures since the war began has left Tehran struggling to make coherent decisions.
Meanwhile, the US has been deploying thousands of additional troops to the region over the past week. Officials and analysts have suggested the build-up may be less a genuine prelude to ground operations than a pressure tactic — an attempt to force Tehran into accepting American terms before the military option becomes unavoidable for both sides.
