India faces early heatwaves despite La Nina, traditionally linked to cooler global conditions.
Experts say long-term climate warming is weakening natural cooling effects of La Nina.
Rainfall deficit and rising wet-bulb temperatures increase health risks across regions.
India has skipped the spring season yet again as unusually early summers take hold, with heatwaves arriving as early as the first half of February. Despite the presence of La Nina—a climate pattern typically associated with cooler global temperatures—relentless greenhouse gas emissions have pushed temperatures well above seasonal norms, according to a Climate Trends report.
The impacts are already being felt across the subcontinent. On March 10, Mumbai recorded a staggering 40 degrees Celsius, a "severe heatwave" condition 7.6 degrees Celsius above the average. In Delhi-NCR, maximum temperatures have hovered around 35 degrees Celsius—five to seven degrees above normal—while isolated pockets in Himachal Pradesh and Vidarbha are recording departures of up to 8 degrees Celsius above normal. This follows a 2025 that, despite being a La Nina year, ranked as the eighth warmest since 1901.
2 March 2026
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Why Heat Persists Despite La Nina
Meteorologists note that the traditional cooling effect of La Nina is being overridden by long-term warming trends. "Climate change has reformed some of the typical impacts of La Nina," Mahesh Palawat, Vice President at Skymet Weather told in the news release published by Climate Trends.
He further noted that while ocean temperatures might reduce, the rate of global warming is increasing so rapidly that the cooling effect is hardly felt. G P Sharma, President at Skymet, adds that naturally occurring events like El Niño and La Nina are now "severely affected by human-induced climate change".
Adding to the distress is a record rainfall deficiency. February 2026 saw an 81% deficiency, recording just 4.2 mm of rain despite an above-average number of Western Disturbances. This dryness, combined with rising "Wet Bulb" temperatures—where high humidity prevents the human body from cooling down through perspiration—poses a growing threat of heat-related illnesses and fatalities in coastal and inland regions alike.
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) warns of little relief, forecasting above-normal heatwave days for the entire March-to-May season. With the Indian Ocean predicted to warm by up to 3.8 degrees Celsius per century, these erratic patterns are no longer a distant risk but a "present and intensifying force" reshaping life in India.
