China will reimpose export restrictions on specialty fertilisers from October, likely triggering price hikes.
The temporary resumption of Chinese exports has provided short-term relief.
Export curbs will come through tighter inspections and delayed consignments, not a full ban.
Indian firms are rushing to secure supplies during the current one-month window.
India's specialty fertiliser industry is bracing for renewed supply challenges as China prepares to reimpose export restrictions from October, potentially triggering price hikes that will directly impact farmers, a senior industry official said on Saturday.
The temporary resumption of Chinese specialty fertiliser exports has provided short-term relief, but this reprieve will be brief as Beijing plans to tighten export controls through increased inspections and consignment delays from next month.
"It's a temporary fix because China is closing the export window from October. They will be closing it for the entire world market, not only for India," Rajib Chakraborty, President of the Soluble Fertilizer Industry Association, told PTI in an interview.
While issues between India and China appear resolved for now, the restriction pattern is expected to resume. "Once they stop the supplies or they start restricting the supplies, they don't stop it completely. They restrict it by imposing inspections and delaying the consignments. So that process will start again from October," Chakraborty said.
Indian specialty fertiliser companies are scrambling to secure adequate supplies during the current one-month window, with global sourcing firms working overtime to fulfil their entire seasonal requirements before the restrictions kick in.
"We have very good global sourcing players in the market who will be sourcing their entire consignments and requirements in this one month only. Many of them are SFIA members also," Chakraborty said.
The industry expects indigenous supplies to become available by mid-season, which could help offset some supply constraints. However, price increases appear inevitable.
"We will not see much impact this time except the price hikes... Anyway price hikes will impact farmers directly," he added.
India's dependence on Chinese specialty fertiliser imports has grown dramatically since 2005, when European suppliers began sourcing from China to serve Indian markets.
Today, the country imports 80% of its specialty fertilisers directly from China, while the remaining 20% is indirectly traded through Chinese sources. Barring 5% of NPK formulations produced domestically, India is 95% dependent on Chinese supplies for specialty fertilisers.
The recent halt in Chinese specialty fertiliser exports triggered a 40 per cent price surge and created supply shortages in the specialty segment. However, the timing helped limit immediate disruption to farming operations.
"The impact was not so visible this time because the actual season for usage of specialty fertiliser starts from September, wherein various cash crops, horticultural crops like grapes, banana, farmers start using drip irrigation and then they use soluble fertilizer and specialty fertiliser extensively," Chakraborty said.
The peak demand period coincides with cash crop and horticultural farming seasons, when growers rely heavily on soluble and specialty fertilisers for drip irrigation systems.
