Nifty Holds Above 24,550; Strait Of Hormuz Uncertainty Keeps Markets Range-bound

Indian benchmark indices ended marginally higher on Monday in a volatile session as strong corporate earnings and resilient domestic fundamentals offset concerns over rising crude oil prices and continued uncertainty surrounding the Strait of Hormuz.

The Nifty 50 closed 13.15 points, or 0.05%, higher at 24,583.80, while the Sensex gained 43.27 points, or 0.06%, to settle at 78,542.44.

Among the key contributors, Bajaj Finance and Titan added 16.34 points and 14.94 points, respectively, to the Nifty's gains. On the other hand, SBI and Reliance Industries weighed on the benchmark, dragging it lower by 24.64 points and 16.49 points, respectively.

Global Markets Offer Mixed Cues

Asian markets ended mostly higher, supported by positive cues from Wall Street. Japan's Nikkei 225 climbed 2.08%, Hong Kong's Hang Seng rose 1.05%, South Korea's Kospi gained 0.65% and China's Shanghai Composite advanced 0.67%. Australia's ASX 200, however, fell 0.33%.

European markets traded mixed, with Germany's DAX and Switzerland's SMI posting modest gains, while the UK's FTSE, France's CAC and Belgium's BEL 20 edged lower.

The regional optimism followed a strong finish on Wall Street on Friday, where the S&P 500 closed at a fresh record high, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average and Nasdaq Composite also ended higher.

Crude Oil, Strait of Hormuz Remain In Focus

Crude oil prices moved higher as uncertainty persisted over the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, a key global shipping route.

Brent crude futures for October delivery rose 1.1% to $84.48 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate futures for September gained 1.1% to $79.01.

Oil prices firmed after Iran rejected reports of direct negotiations with the US over reopening the strategic waterway. Although optimism had emerged last week following comments from US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, President Donald Trump later said the US was only "semi-negotiating" with Tehran while continuing economic pressure on Iran.

Higher crude prices remain a key risk for Indian equities as they could stoke inflationary pressures and complicate the monetary policy outlook.

Focus Shifts to US Inflation Data

US stock futures were largely subdued after Wall Street recorded its strongest weekly performance since April. S&P 500 futures slipped about 0.2%, Nasdaq-100 futures edged up 0.1%, while Dow futures declined 99 points.

Vinod Nair, Head of Research at Geojit Investments, said markets remained on a "tight leash" as uncertainty surrounding the Strait of Hormuz tempered risk appetite, although encouraging corporate earnings continued to support sentiment.

He added that softer-than-expected US jobs data has weakened the case for further Federal Reserve tightening, shifting investor attention to upcoming US inflation data for fresh cues on interest rates and bond yields. A softer yield environment, he said, could revive foreign institutional investor (FII) interest in emerging markets, while India's resilient domestic growth and strong macroeconomic fundamentals continue to provide support for equities.

Technical Outlook

According to Rupak De, Senior Technical Analyst at LKP Securities, the Nifty remained volatile within a narrow range but continued to hold above its short-term 50-day exponential moving average, indicating that the near-term trend remains sideways to positive.

He said the daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains in a bullish crossover, with 24,650 acting as the immediate resistance. A decisive breakout above this level could trigger a sustained rally, while 24,500 remains the key support. A breach below that level could intensify weakness, although until then the index is expected to remain range-bound.