ISMA estimates 279 LMT of net 2025–26 production, 280–285 LMT consumption and around 35 LMT in closing stocks
Prices have increased due to festive demand, lower-than-expected output, speculative buying and hoarding and market sentiments
ISMA said ethanol blending programme is not to be blamed for price increase as grain-based ethanol accounts for 75% of supply
The Indian Sugar & Bio-Energy Manufacturers Association (ISMA) has said that there is no sugar shortage in the country, and has attributed the recent rise in sugar prices to temporary factors.
The industry body also said that it is expecting prices to ease as festive-season demand normalises and fresh domestic supplies enter the market over the next few weeks.
1 August 2026
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"India has adequate sugar availability and the measures being taken should be seen in that context. The government and industry are acting ahead of the festive demand period to maintain orderly supplies," said Niraj Shirgaokar, President, ISMA while addressing a press conference on the matter in New Delhi on Monday.
"The import window, stockholding measures and advancement of the crushing season provide multiple levers to manage the temporary firmness we are seeing. With closing stocks estimated at around 35 LMT and fresh-season production being brought forward, we remain confident about domestic availability," he added.
The remarks come as sugar prices have risen in India over the past two weeks, raising concerns about availability ahead of the festive season and prompting debate over the impact of the country’s ethanol blending programme.
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According to ISMA, the net sugar production for the 2025–26 season is estimated at around 279 lakh tonnes (LMT), against domestic consumption of 280–285 LMT, with closing stocks projected at around 35 LMT.
The industry body said existing inventories should be sufficient to meet demand during the transition to the next sugar season.
ISMA attributed the recent firmness in prices to a combination of factors such as speculative hoarding by the traders, lower-than-expected production, stronger festive demand, market sentiment and a sharp rise in international sugar prices.
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To address the issue, ISMA Vice President Madhav B Shriram said that mills, along with National Federation of Cooperative Sugar Factories (NFCSF), are working to advance the 2026–27 crushing season by 10–15 days.
"Special crushing has already begun in Tamil Nadu and Karnataka, while October production is expected to reach around 10 LMT, compared with the usual 4 LMT," he said.
On the concerns of India's ethanol blending programme and the sugar being divereted for that, ISMA Director General Deepak Ballani said the programme is not responsible for the current price movement.
Ballani said that grain-based ethanol is estimated to account for 75% of total ethanol supply in 2025–26, while sugar-based ethanol accounts for 25%.
"The data does not support the suggestion that ethanol is responsible for the current movement in sugar prices. Sugar diversion is determined only after assessing domestic requirements and the overall sugar balance," he said.
More importantly, the ethanol programme itself has changed significantly, with grains now accounting for an estimated 75% of supply, he added.
