Tomato prices surge 400% amid halted Afghan trade and crop disruptions.
Food inflation deepens, squeezing household budgets and weakening GDP growth outlook.
Border clashes freeze $2bn in trade, hurting farmers and traders.
The price of tomato in Pakistan has surged to around 600 Pakistani rupees ($2.13) per kg, about a 400% increase due to a halt in trade between Pakistan and Afghanistan, reported Reuters.
The sharp increase in tomato prices in Pakistan is more than just a nuisance for the consumers but it also represents more significant upheavals that may impair the country's overall economic performance and trade dynamics.
Impact on GDP
According to the ‘Tomato Production in Pakistan’ report published by Gallup Pakistan, an average household spent Rs 173 a month on tomatoes. This makes up 0.47% of their overall household expenditure, 1.29% of their total expenditure on food, and 13.61% of their total expenditure on vegetables.
Another study published in the Journal of Bioresource Management stated that Pakistan’s per capita tomato consumption remains at around 8 kg a year, roughly 20 grams a day. This means that most people don’t eat tomatoes raw in salads or omelettes but they consume them as part of gravies and cooked dishes, reported Dawn.
Food inflation of this gravity could impair Pakistan’s GDP on multiple levels. First, higher food costs reduce disposable income or the money that someone has left to spend after paying taxes. According to a 2022 report published by the Institute of Business Administration Karachi, the increase in food prices reduces their real income or personal disposable income available to spend on health and education. With households spending more on staples such as tomatoes, less amounts will be left for other consumption.
Since consumer spending is a large component of GDP, this dampens aggregate demand. Second, food price inflation can exhaust real incomes and slow economic growth indirectly by reducing consumer confidence as consumers struggling to adjust to the shifting cost of everyday items. Third, agri-food supply disruptions affect producers, wholesalers, logistics firms and others in the value chain thereby reducing output in those sectors. For instance, as reported by Dawn, Balochistan tomato crop is declining and import flows from neighbouring markets have been hit.
Border Closure & Trade Disruption
A primary cause of the surge in prices of tomatoes in Pakistan is the closure of trade between Pakistan and Afghanistan since October 11, following ground fighting and Pakistani airstrikes across their contested 2,600 km (1,600 mile) frontier that killed dozens on both sides in the worst fighting since the Taliban's 2021 takeover of Kabul, reported Reuters.
Pakistan shares four main border points with Afghanistan. According to The Express Tribune, the border clashes in mid-October have resulted in the closure of major crossings and frozen these border points that handled annual imports around $566.8mn and exports around $1.504bn, contributing an estimated Rs 46.867bn annually in custom duties alone.
Because of the halted import flows from Afghanistan, many goods including tomatoes and apples are now scarce, making everyday food items more expensive for the residents.
In addition, Khan Jan Alokozay, the head of the Pak-Afghan Chamber of Commerce in Kabul, told Reuters that both sides are losing about $1mn each day with trade disrupted.
Inflation Pressures Mount
The halted trade between Pakistan and Afghanistan not only mean import shortages for Pakistan but also impacts its inflation, measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI).
Citing data from Karachi-based Topline Securities, Arab News reported that the country’s inflation is expected to reach 5.25–5.75% in October year on year. This is in comparison with 5.61% inflation in September 2025 and 7.17% in October 2024. On a month-on-month basis, inflation for Oct. 2025 is projected at +1.1%.
“Food segment is expected to show increase of 1.21% MoM,” the brokerage and research firm told Arab News. “The resurgence in food inflation is primarily on the back of supply side effect on food products due to floods and closure of Afghan Border in the country,” it stated.
According to Dawn, tomatoes are typically planted twice a year in Pakistan — the spring crop (sown January to March) and the autumn crop (sown July to September). The autumn harvest usually reaches the market by October which lowers prices. However, this time the scene is different due to floods and supply disruptions, causing a surge in prices of tomato.
The current surge in prices of tomatoes is concerning because Pakistan has not seen such a price surge of the crop in its history. The country has witnessed crop failures earlier as well but tomato prices surpassing Rs 500 per kg, sets a new record and makes preparing everyday kitchen staples difficult.
