Monsoon Mania

If you have been in Mumbai for a good part of the monsoon, you could end up believing that the rains this year around have been unrelenting. But that’s not the case. According to the Indian Meterological Department, the country has seen below-normal monsoon this year, with the season ending on a 5.2% deficit in September. A below-normal monsoon is when rains are 90-96% of the long period average (LPA), a notch above the ‘deficient monsoon’ category when rains are below 90% long-term average as seen in the drought years of 2014 and 2015. While 50% of the country’s districts have had normal rains, more than a third — 215 districts — are left with deficient rainfall across the entire country. Over one-third of the districts in Uttar Pradesh, Haryana, Madhya Pradesh, Punjab, Rajasthan, Maharasthra, Kerala, Odisha and Karnataka have seen poor rainfall. States which have poor irrigation availability will be impacted the most. The bigger threat though is that a poor kharif crop output could result in food inflation trending higher.