Silver and gold are expected to witness a decisive week ahead as escalating tensions in West Asia and a slate of macroeconomic data are likely to determine whether the rally extends or undergoes a correction, analysts said.
Traders will closely monitor crude prices and key US macroeconomic data including retails sales, housing numbers, and consumer sentiments. Provisional manufacturing and services PMI numbers from major economies such as the UK and the US will also remain on investors' radar, analysts added.
The geopolitical outlook turned uncertain after Iran announced on Friday that it has opened the waterway for commercial traffic and several commercial vessels tried to cross it. However, Tehran later reversed the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and reimposed restrictions following the US decision to continue its blockade of Iran's ports.
1 April 2026
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On the domestic front, Ministry of External Affairs said it had summoned the Iranian envoy and lodged a protest after two Indian-flagged vessels carrying crude oil reversed course in the Strait of Hormuz after coming under Iranian military gunfire.
"For precious metals, it's going to be a crucial week on deciding the continuation of trend or the possibility of a correction. Focus will be on the inflation data from Japan and the UK, and monetary policy decision by China," Pranav Mer, Vice President, EBG - Commodity & Currency Research, JM Financial Services Ltd, said.
On the Multi Commodity Exchange, silver futures surged Rs 13,868, or 5.7 per cent, to settle at Rs 2.57 lakh per kilogram over the past week, and gold gained Rs 1,957, or 1.3 per cent, to close at Rs 1.54 lakh per 10 grams.
Mer said bullion prices ended higher for the fourth straight week, supported by a weaker dollar and safe-haven buying amid volatile global environment. He added that frequent policy shifts by US President Donald Trump regarding the Iran conflict have led to sharp swings across financial markets.
Meanwhile, the ceasefire between the US and Iran is set to expire on April 22, which may further influence market sentiment.
Mer noted that exchange-trade fund investors have returned to precious metals over the past week after record liquidation in March. Silver also continues to gain support from improving industrial metal sentiment, particularly copper, along with forecasts of another year of supply deficit.
In the international markets, Comex silver gained USD 5.36, or 7 per cent, to close the week at USD 81.84 per ounce, and gold rose USD 92.2, or 2 per cent, to USD 4,879.6 per ounce.
Brokerage firm Choice Broking said gold and silver held steady around USD 4,800 and USD 80 per ounce on Friday amid improved sentiment after confirmation the Strait of Hormuz would remain open during a 10-day ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon.
However, uncertainty persists as the US naval blockade targeting Iran remains in place until a final agreement is reached, it added.
Analysts will also monitor the US Senate confirmation hearing for Kevin Warsh as the new Federal Reserve Chair is scheduled for Tuesday. Warsh is expected to strike a dovish tone on monetary policy easing, which could lend further support to precious metal prices.
