Markets Gain On Positive Global Cues; Weak Monsoon Remains Key Risk

Global markets supported sentiment, but analysts warned that persistent monsoon deficit could weigh on growth and sectoral earnings

Markets Gain On Positive Global Cues; Weak Monsoon Remains Key Risk
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Summary
Summary of this article
  • Sensex and Nifty extended early gains, supported by positive global market cues.

  • Weak monsoon concerns remained the key domestic risk for investor sentiment.

  • Healthcare, pharma and power stocks are seen as relatively resilient sectors.

Indian benchmark indices traded higher in early deals on Wednesday, tracking positive global cues, although gains remained measured as investors continued to monitor concerns over the progress of the southwest monsoon.

At around 9:40 am, the BSE Sensex was up 250 points, or 0.33%, at 76,728, while the NSE Nifty 50 gained 75 points, or 0.31%, to trade at 23,941.

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Market breadth remained positive, with 1,597 stocks advancing against 629 declines on the NSE. Titan Company, Mahindra & Mahindra, Eternal, Sun Pharma and Bajaj Auto were among the top gainers, while Bajaj Finserv, HDFC Life, Coal India, Tech Mahindra and InterGlobe Aviation traded lower.

Crude Edges Higher

The Indian rupee opened marginally weaker at 94.68 against the US dollar, compared with Tuesday's close of 94.66, as investors balanced improving domestic macroeconomic conditions with global uncertainty.

Brent crude futures rose 0.41% to $73.25 a barrel after reports that Iran would not hold direct talks with US representatives in Doha. WTI crude also gained 0.47% to trade near $69.83 a barrel.

Gold and silver remained under pressure, with COMEX gold falling 1.13% to $3,993 an ounce and silver declining nearly 3%. Bitcoin also remained weak, trading below $59,000 as investors trimmed exposure to risk assets amid expectations of higher-for-longer US interest rates.

Weak Monsoon Emerges As Key Domestic Risk

VK Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist at Geojit Investments, said the biggest concern for the market is the poor progress of the southwest monsoon.

He noted that June ended with a rainfall deficit of around 40%, while the India Meteorological Department has forecast below-normal rainfall for July. If this trend continues, seasonal rainfall could fall below the IMD's forecast of 90% of the long-term average, a risk the market has not yet fully priced in.

According to Vijayakumar, investors may consider partially shifting portfolios towards fixed-income assets while increasing exposure to relatively monsoon-resilient sectors such as healthcare, pharmaceuticals, power and select fairly valued defence stocks. He added that these sectors are better positioned to withstand the impact ofn weaker rural demand if the rainfall deficit persists.

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