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1. Gold futures in New York hit record highs after US tariffs on one-kilo and 100-ounce bars, hurting suppliers like Switzerland.
2. Geopolitical tensions, tariff disputes and rate-cut hopes push Indian prices near ₹1 lakh.
3. China and Russia lead central banks adding 1,000+ tonnes in 2024, alongside strong silver demand.
Gold futures in New York touched record highs on 8 August after the United States moved to impose tariffs on imports of one-kilo gold bars, while spot prices looked set for a second consecutive weekly gain, buoyed by tariff turmoil and expectations of US interest rate cuts.
According to the Financial Times, a letter from US Customs and Border Protection stated that one-kilo and 100-ounce gold bars would now be classified under a customs code carrying higher tariffs. The change could hit Switzerland, the world’s largest refining hub, as well as other key suppliers. The move comes just as President Donald Trump’s latest wave of tariff hikes on imports from dozens of countries came into force, pushing major trade partners such as Switzerland, Brazil and India to seek better terms.
Gold’s traditional role as a safe haven during political and financial upheaval has helped drive the rally. December futures briefly traded more than $102 per ounce above spot prices before easing to a $96 premium over the London benchmark.
Gold had been exempted from tariffs back in April when Trump announced sweeping duties on a range of imports, ending an arbitrage trade that had drawn nearly 850-tn of the metal into New York warehouses. That exemption saw US premiums collapse, closing the gap with other markets.
Looking ahead, Rahul Kalantri, VP Commodities at Mehta Equities, sees gold finding strong support at $3,364–3,345 per ounce, with resistance between $3,410 and $3,425.
After playing a sidekick to equities in recent years, gold has been on a surge, up 12% in FY24 and 16% in FY23, according to MCX data. In India, prices have risen almost 30% over the past year, hovering around the ₹1 lakh mark. Silver has joined the rally, supported by robust industrial demand from the solar and electronics sectors.
Central banks, too, are stockpiling at record pace, adding over 1,000-tn to global reserves in 2024 alone. China and Russia have been leading the charge, part of a wider effort to reduce dependence on the US dollar.
