Can artificial intelligence lead to a catastrophe? Well, yes! The tech advancement which is at the forefront of any country’s development ---- be it America, China, or India ---- may leave an impact on international relations and national security. Top tech executives, including Google’s former CEO Eric Schmidt, Scale AI CEO Alexandr Wang, and Center for AI Safety Director Dan Hendrycks, sounded the alarm about the global race to build superintelligent AI.
The trio, in their policy paper publicly available, argued that the United States should not pursue a Manhattan Project-style push to develop AI systems with “superhuman intelligence”, also known as AGI (artificial general intelligence). “Manhattan project assumes that rivals will acquiesce to an enduring imbalance or omnicide rather than move to prevent it,” the authors wrote in their paper called ‘Superintelligence Strategy’.
“What begins as a push for a superweapon and global control risks prompting hostile countermeasures and escalating tensions, thereby undermining the very stability the strategy purports to secure,” they added.
What Is Manhattan Project-Style Approach for AI?
The Manhattan Project, which consumed 0.4% of the US GDP, was driven by the need to develop nuclear capabilities ahead of other countries. It was a top-secret research and development undertaking during World War II, led by the United States. Its primary objective was to develop and build atomic bombs before Nazi Germany. Those atomic bombs were used in the Hiroshima and Nagasaki incidents that took place in August 1945.
Currently, a similar urgency is evident in the global effort to lead in AI, with investment in AI training doubling every year for nearly the past decade, the trio said. Several “AI Manhattan Projects” aiming to eventually build superintelligence are already underway, financed by many of the most powerful corporations in the world. The Trump administration has announced a $500 billion investment in the AI infrastructure named the “Stargate Project”.
"Superintelligent AI surpassing humans in nearly every domain would amount to the most precarious technological development since the nuclear bomb. Given the stakes, superintelligence is inescapably a matter of national security, and an effective superintelligence strategy should draw from a long history of national security policy," the co-authors said.
Is AI The Next Superweapon for Nations?
Traditionally, economic power was measured in terms of population, wealth, and the country’s industrial strength. However, in the tech era, it can be dictated by access to high-performance AI chips and advanced AI models. Nations with control over AI chip production and distribution could outcompete others economically.
Calling it the new generation’s superweapon, the authors said advanced AI systems may drive technological breakthroughs that alter the strategic balance and could generate strategic surprise that catches rivals off-guard. Though the mere pursuit of such a breakthrough could trigger preemptive actions.
“Faced with the spectre of superweapons and an AI-enabled strategic monopoly on power, some leaders may turn to preventive action. Rather than only relying on cooperation or seeking to outpace their adversaries, they may consider sabotage or datacenter attacks, if the alternative is to accept a future in which one’s national survival is perpetually at risk,” the trio cautioned.
But now the question arises: If not in Manhattan Project-style, then how should the world move ahead in the AI race?
What’s The Alternative Path for AI Development?
Just as nations once developed nuclear strategies to secure their survival, the world now need a coherent superintelligence strategy to navigate a new period of transformative change, the authors said. They, hence, introduced a new concept called “Mutual Assured AI Malfunction (MAIM)” which is modelled on the nuclear arms race’s Mutually Assured Destruction (MAD).
“We introduce the concept of Mutual Assured AI Malfunction (MAIM): a deterrence regime resembling nuclear mutual assured destruction (MAD) where any state’s aggressive bid for unilateral AI dominance is met with preventive sabotage by rivals,” they stated.
The trio suggested that states can also increase their competitiveness by bolstering their economies through AI. They can engage in non-proliferation to rogue actors to keep weaponisable AI capabilities out of their hands, the authors said.
“The three-part framework (deterrence, nonproliferation, and competitiveness) outlines a robust strategy to superintelligence in the years ahead. AI demands sober attention and a risk-conscious approach: outcomes, favorable or disastrous, hinge on what we do next,” the tech giants added.
