The El Niño Effect: Why India’s Kharif Recovery May Not Tell the Full Story

As India’s southwest monsoon drew to a close, the agricultural picture looked less alarming than the rainfall numbers alone would suggest. The season ended with rainfall 13% below the long-period average, the weakest monsoon since 2015, yet kharif sowing had recovered substantially from its weak start. But acreage tells us what farmers managed to plant. It does not tell us what those crops will yield, how much water remains for the next season, or what happens to the families whose incomes depend on agriculture. India may have avoided the worst-case scenario during the sowing season, but it has entered the rabi cycle with a smaller water buffer. The more consequential effects of this year’s weather may become visible over the next few months.

Some of those effects are already showing. On 22 September, Karnataka’s Deputy Chief Minister told the Legislative Council that 177 taluks had been declared drought-affected, a number likely to rise to nearly 200, with crop loss estimated at 82% and many farmers having lost two rounds of sowing. Days later, Maharashtra declared drought in 265 of its 358 talukas, with Marathwada recording a 38% rainfall deficit and soybean among the worst-hit crops. In these districts, a recovered sowing figure has already failed to become a harvest.

Behind The National Average

As of 18 September, acreage was about 1.5 million hectares, or roughly 1.3%, below last year’s level. For an economy that had spent much of the monsoon watching El Niño strengthen, this offered some relief. By the standards of an El Niño year, the season had looked relatively orderly.

But the national figure hides considerable variation. Seventeen of 36 meteorological subdivisions, covering 42% of the country’s area, recorded deficient rainfall. September, at 92% of normal, widened the gap rather than closing it. East and Northeast India recorded their lowest monsoon rainfall since 1901.

For farmers, these differences matter more than the national average. Rainfall determines whether a crop can be sown. What the monsoon leaves behind determines what can be grown next. Reservoirs, groundwater and soil moisture form the bridge between one agricultural season and the next.

A Smaller Water Buffer

On 24 September, India’s major reservoirs held about 70% of their capacity, below last year’s 79% and the 10-year average of 76.62%. Little relief is expected soon: the India Meteorological Department expects October rainfall to be below 85% of normal.

Unlike kharif crops, which receive much of their water directly from the southwest monsoon, India’s principal winter crops are substantially more dependent on irrigation and the moisture retained in the soil after the rains. Wheat, mustard and chickpea are sown between October and December, when the water accumulated during the monsoon becomes increasingly important.

The agriculture ministry has set its 2026–27 foodgrain production target at 373.93 million tonnes, 2.63 million tonnes below last year’s record output, citing El Niño, water availability and soil moisture. States have also been advised to shift towards less water-intensive crops in areas facing moisture stress.

El Niño Into The Wheat Season

The uncertainty does not end with the monsoon either. The Indian National Centre for Ocean Information Services has placed the probability of El Niño remaining the dominant Pacific condition at 85–98% through March 2027. That period overlaps almost exactly with India’s rabi cycle, from sowing and crop development to the later stages of the wheat season.

El Niño does not automatically translate into crop losses. India’s irrigation network, food stocks and procurement systems provide buffers that did not exist several decades ago. But irrigation itself depends on water being available. When reservoirs and soil moisture begin the season below normal, the room to absorb another weather shock becomes smaller.

For wheat, the risk does not end with irrigation. India’s recent experience has shown how vulnerable the crop can be to unusually high temperatures during February and March. A crop that makes it through a dry start can still lose yield if heat arrives during grain filling.

What A Weaker Rabi Would Mean

A weaker rabi harvest would come after an already difficult monsoon and could mean lower incomes for agricultural households. Lower wheat or pulse production could put renewed pressure on food prices, while weaker agricultural earnings could weigh on rural consumption. For the government, a

poor rabi season could mean difficult decisions around procurement, buffer stocks, imports and trade restrictions if domestic supplies tighten.

Over the coming months, reservoir storage, groundwater availability, rabi acreage and temperatures during February and March will tell us more about the agricultural consequences of this year’s weather than the final kharif sowing numbers. Kharif sowing may have recovered, but it is still too early to say that Indian agriculture has weathered El Niño well. Much will depend on how the rabi season unfolds.

Disclaimer: The views expressed are personal.