Steel demand in India is expected to normalise from October, with 55–60% of consumption in the second half of the year
Demand has grown 7–8% this year, expected to reach double digits soon
Per capita steel use in India is low at 104 kg, offering room for growth
Naveen Jindal, chairman of Jindal Steel, today said that steel demand will begin to normalise in October. Approximately 55–60% of steel consumption occurs in the second half of the year, he stated, speaking to the media on the sidelines of the 3rd ISA Coking Coal Summit.
So far, the industry demand has grown around 7-8% this year. According to Jindal, it will reach double digits in the second half. Asked whether India would continue to be a net exporter of steel, he said it was difficult to predict, given that the country’s production is largely geared towards domestic needs.
"With a population of nearly 1.5bn and per capita steel use at just 104 kg, compared to a global average of 219 kg, our domestic consumption has a long way to go," he added.
Speaking on the falling domestic prices, Jindal pointed out that production has been steadily increasing. "Seasonal factors also matter — the monsoon always reduces demand, as construction slows down. Flooding in some regions has further impacted demand, bringing prices down," he added.
He added that global steel prices remain under pressure as US tariffs have forced exports originally bound for America to be redirected to other markets, weighing on international rates.
Meanwhile, the Directorate General of Trade Remedies (DGTR) has recommended a phased safeguard duty on certain steel flat products, starting at a 12% rate in the first year. This duty, intended to protect domestic steelmakers from a surge in imports primarily from China, South Korea and Japan. It was initially imposed provisionally in April 2025 and is now being considered for three years with declining rates at 12%, 11.5% and 11%.
"We had demanded for 25%, but the DGTR does not simply follow what the industry asks for. They assess the level of injury to the sector. In their wisdom, they have recommended 12%, which is acceptable, especially as it was previously 12.5%. We can manage with that," Jindal noted.
He also stressed the need for more mines to be released for auction simultaneously. “When mines are auctioned one at a time, companies that have already invested in steel plants are forced to pay exorbitant premiums. If more mines are made available at once, premiums will naturally come down, making raw material supplies more secure,” he explained.
On the recent goods and services tax (GST) reforms, the GST Council raised the rate on coal from 5% to 18%, while removing the compensation cess of ₹400 per tonne. Jindal believes the changes will benefit the sector. “Since our steel output also attracts 18% GST, whatever we pay on coal can be claimed back as input credit. Overall, GST 2.0 will have a positive impact on steel,” he said.
