India is estimated to contribute nearly 6% to global trade growth in the next five years, according to the 'DHL Trade Atlas 2025' report, released in collaboration with New York University’s Stern School of Business and German logistics brand DHL.
According to several media reports, the research said that India will be ranked third globally across 200 countries, only behind China with 12% and the USA with 10%.
“India also stands out as the country with the third-largest absolute amount of forecast trade growth (6% of additional global trade), behind only China (12%) and the United States (10%),” the report noted as the trade growth has continued to show resilience amid geopolitical tensions and trade policy uncertainty.
India is further projected to retain its third spot due to its faster trade growth than other large economies. It will also rise to the 17th spot on the speed dimension metric as compared to its current level of 32nd.
“India, on the other hand, achieved its third-place rank on the scale dimension because its trade growth was much faster than other large economies,” said the research.
According to the report, India was the 13th largest participant in international trade last year, with an annual compound growth rate of 5.2% from 2019.
The report also suggests that India, Vietnam, Indonesia and the Philippines are estimated to rank among the top 30 for both speed and scale of trade growth during the next five years.
India's Export-Import Scenario
India’s exports have reached a historic height of $778.21bn in 2023-24. In FY25, cumulative exports during April- December are estimated at $602.64bn, a 6.03% increase from $568.36bn in the same period of 2023.
Ministry of Commerce and Industry data shows that India's total exports for last month stood at $71.95bn, marking a 3.16% year-on-year increase. During the same period, imports dropped by 11.33% to $67.52bn.
