SBI research report estimates minimal revenue loss of ₹3,700 crore from GST rate rationalisation.
Government estimates the annualised net fiscal impact at ₹48,000 crore.
Revenue loss expected to have no impact on fiscal deficit due to growth and consumption boost.
GST Council replaced the four-tier structure with a two-tier system: standard rate 18% and 5%, de-merit rate 40% on selected goods/services.
The State Bank of India (SBI) in its latest research report said that reforms in GST through reduction in rates will cause a minimal revenue loss of ₹3,700 crore.
The government estimates the net fiscal impact of GST rates rationalisation will be ₹48,000 crore on an annualised basisThe government estimates the net fiscal impact of GST rates rationalisation will be ₹48,000 crore on an annualised basis.
According to the report, given the growth and consumption boost, the minimal revenue loss is estimated at ₹3,700 crore and will have no impact on the fiscal deficit.
At the 56th meeting of GST Council held few days ago, the current four-tier structure has been replaced with a two-tier one, with a standard rate of 18% and five per cent, and de-merit rate of 40% on selected few goods and services.
The report said that the GST rate rationalisation will largely have a positive impact on the banking sector due to meaningful cost efficiencies.
GST rate rationalisation has also brought down the effective weighted average rate from 14.4% at the time of inception in 2017, which is expected to come down to 9.5%, the report said.
When GST was introduced, the four rates were five per cent, 12%, 18% and 28%.
Since the GST rate rationalisation of essential items (around 295) has declined from 12% to five per cent or zero, the CPI inflation in the category may also come down by 25 basis points to 30 basis points in the current financial year, the report said.
Overall, the CPI inflation may be moderated in the range of 65 basis points to 75 basis points over 2026-27, according to the report.
