2024 is a crucial year for the world as more than 50 countries—close to half the global population—elect their next governments, which will have consequences for many years to come. Apart from elections in Taiwan, Bangladesh and Russia, the world is keenly waiting to see the fate of America as it unfolds later in November, not to mention the Indian Lok Sabha elections this month, where the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and its prime ministerial candidate Narendra Modi are all set to secure a third term.
While the outcome is a foregone conclusion for many, it does not take away from the significance of elections in India. The fifth-largest economy is growing faster than any of its major rivals. India is currently America’s biggest ally as the latter tries to assert itself against China and Russia, all underscoring the subcontinent’s significance in a multipolar world order. After the successful hosting of G20 last year, India is now the toast of the free world; it is capitalist, it is a democracy and everyone wants a slice of its huge market.
But that is just a veneer.
The great Indian growth story is limited to a small section of the population, which explains why, despite being the fifth-largest economy of the world, its per capita income places it at 159 among nations. So, India continues to be a nation of the poor and inequality rises while the affluent are getting richer.
Also, a closer examination of the GDP figures reveals that the current growth trajectory is heavily reliant on government expenditure, which has failed to stimulate private investments or large-scale demand. This dependency raises concerns regarding the sustainability of the growth cycle, as the government seeks to control its fiscal deficit in the next financial year. We know how unchecked optimism can lead to disaster.
Modi’s plan to alter this is on the back of manufacturing; the upcoming EV push is part of this; build equity by pioneering connectivity through both digital and physical infrastructure. With his third mandate in the offing, expectation is that the prime minister will stick to this primer. But the political and economic divisions could ruin India. The ruling party’s calculated crackdown on opposition, its heavy-handed decimation of dissent, its penchant for dismantling institutions along with its deep suspicion of what it terms as woke, western and elite, all point to a much deeper malaise.
But with a third mandate, only Modi can rescue India from hate and divisive politics that has engulfed the country. While the ruling party’s populist pitch for development often veers into authoritarianism and the vilification of minorities continues, here’s hoping that Modi’s legacy of prosperity will be one where the bounty of growth will be so large that the BJP will shun its divisive politics and share it with all in pursuit of a multi-cultural society. History has shown us time and again that this is the stuff of delirium. But can Modi’s India set a new narrative?
