The Hidden Cost of the Iran War May be Much Higher For The US: Here’s How

The US-Iran war is an asymmetrical conflict; a global superpower and its allies pitted against a largely isolated regional power.  Yet despite severely depleted air and naval resources, Iran managed to inflict significant damage on American military resources in the Gulf.

An analysis by The Washington Post of more than 100 satellite images has revealed that at least 228 structures and pieces of equipment have been struck across 15 US military sites in the Gulf.

The assets hit by Iranian missiles and drones include hangars, barracks, radar systems, aircraft, and maintenance buildings. The Pentagon estimated the cost of this war at $25 billion, but several democrats and experts have disputed the figure.

Scale of Damage

Satellite imagery remains the most practical way to analyze damage done to US installations in the region. But, satellite imagery of the region is hard to get due to the US Government requesting to limit, delay or indefinitely withhold the publication of imagery of the region while the war is going on. Vantor and Planet, two of the largest commercial operators in the region have complied with the request, The Post reported.

But Iranian state media have regularly published high resolution imagery on their social media accounts which The Post has analyzed comprehensively.

The brunt of the Iranian offensive was borne by the US Fifth Fleet headquarters in Bahrain and three bases in Kuwait - Ali Al-Salem, Camp Arifjan, the US Army's regional headquarters, and Camp Buehring.

Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) missile defense radars in Jordan and the UAE, a satellite communications site in Qatar, and an E-3 Sentry command and control aircraft along with a refueling tanker in Saudi Arabia were also hit.

The US also lost 24 MQ-9 Reaper drones and a MQ-4C Triton in combat operations. 4 F-15E Strike Eagles were also lost, three allegedly due to ‘friendly fire’, one F-35 was also damaged.

Underestimated Capabilities

Some analysts argued that the Trump administration underestimated the resilience of the Iranian forces. Kelly Grieco, a defense expert, told The Post that plans to destroy Iran’s missile and drone forces fast enough to prevent them from inflicting serious damage underestimated “the depth of Iran’s pre-positioned targeting intelligence on fixed U.S. infrastructure.”

Experts also called out the US Military’s lack of preparedness against one-way attack drones despite their prevalent use in Ukraine.

Complacency might also have been a factor as it appeared that the E-3 Sentry command and control aircraft at Prince Sultan Air Base in Saudi Arabia was destroyed after being repeatedly parked in the same location on an unprotected taxiway, according to satellite imagery analyzed by the post.

The Cost of The War

The Pentagon put the cost of the war at around $25 billion, spent largely on munitions and equipment maintenance. But according to reports by the CNN the cost of replacing destroyed assets and rebuilding US military installations could be around $40-50 billion.

While Democratic lawmakers and economists have said that the overall cost to the economy could be between $630 billion and $1 trillion.

As the war drags on, the Trump administration has asked for a $1.5 trillion defense budget next year which represents a 42% increase, the largest increase in defense spending since The Second World War.