IMD Cuts Monsoon Forecast to 90% Amid El Niño Fears

Monsoon rainfall over the country as a whole is likely to be 90% long period average (LPA) in 2026, even lower than 92% forecast by the India Meteorological Department (IMD)  in April. The country is likely to experience above-normal heatwave days, the weather department wrote in its latest forecast.

The IMD said on May 29 that weak El Niño conditions are expected to develop in June, strengthening towards second half of the season.

“The southwest monsoon seasonal rainfall over the country as a whole is likely to be 90% of the long period average (LPA) with a model error of ±4%, indicating below normal or less rainfall is most likely,” the IMD stated in a press briefing on May 29.

Northeast India is expected to receive normal rainfall, while northwest, central and south peninsular India are likely to receive below-normal monsoon rains, IMD said.

“During June 2026, above normal heatwave days are expected over parts of Uttar Pradesh, Haryana, Punjab, Bihar, Jharkhand, Odisha, Chhattisgarh, Gujarat and Andhra Pradesh, isolated regions of Maharashtra, Telangana, Himachal Pradesh and Tamil Nadu,” the IMD said.

IMD's April Forecast

In its first stage long range forecast for monsoon season in April, the IMD had predicted that India is likely to see a “below normal” monsoon this year. Rainfall is expected to be 92% of the Long Period Average (LPA), with an error margin of ±5%, the IMD had said in a projection that signaled challenges for the country’s rain-fed agriculture and the broader rural economy.

The LPA of the seasonal rainfall over the country as a whole during 1971-2020 is 87 cm, as reported by Hindustan Times earlier.

In April, the spatial distribution released by IMD suggested that the below-normal seasonal rainfall is most likely over many parts of the country except some areas over northeast, northwest and south Peninsular India, where normal to above-normal rainfall is likely.

El Niño and Indian Monsoon

An El Niño climate pattern suppresses the Indian monsoon by warming the equatorial central and eastern Pacific Ocean.

According to reports from the India Meteorological Department (IMD) and Skymet, this warming weakens crucial trade winds, disrupting atmospheric circulation. The resulting sinking air over the Indian subcontinent halts cloud formation and reduces rainfall, triggering a below-normal or deficient monsoon season.