RBI Flags El Nino as Potential Threat to Inflation — Here’s Why

When the Reserve Bank of India announced its policy rates on April 8, it said that El Nino could be a threat to inflation.

The warning came after Skymet Weather predicted that this climate pattern could cause India to have less rain than usual during the monsoon season in 2026.

What is El Nino

El Nino is a periodic climate phenomenon marked by unusual warming of surface waters in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. This warming disrupts atmospheric circulation and alters weather patterns across the globe.

When the conditions are normal, trade winds push warm ocean water westward toward Southeast Asia and Australia, keeping the eastern Pacific relatively cooler. During an El Nino phase, these winds weaken or sometimes reverse. Warm water shifts eastward toward South America. The balance of ocean temperatures and atmospheric circulation gets disturbed.

Impact on Indian Monsoon

El Nino does not have a defined link with the Indian southwest monsoon, which makes the trends unpredictable.

Research, including a 2006 study published in Science by K. Krishna Kumar and Balaji Rajagopalan, highlighted that the location of warming in the Pacific Ocean plays a crucial role. Based on this El Nino events are broadly classified into Central Pacific (CP or Modoki) events – often seen as having a stronger connection with the Indian monsoon. Eastern Pacific (EP or traditional) events – with varying influence. In general, El Nino years are associated with weaker monsoons and lower rainfall in India, but this is not a fixed rule.

Difference between Phases

According to US National Ocean Service, El Nino and LA Nina are climate patterns in the Pacific Ocean that can affect weather worldwide. El Nino is a climate pattern that describes the unusual warming of surface waters in the eastern tropic Pacific Ocean.

It is the “warm phase” of a larger phenomenon called the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). It occurs more frequently than La Nina.

On the contrary, La Nina, the “cool phase” of ENSO, is a pattern that describes the unusual cooling of the tropical eastern Pacific.

Unlike El Nino, which usually lasts less than a year, La Nina events can last between one and three years. In the winter in the Northern Hemisphere, both of these things tend to happen more often.

Signs of El Nino

During an El Nino year, weakening winds along the equator lead to warming water surface temperatures that lead to further weakening of the winds. In general, El Nino years are associated with weaker monsoons and lower rainfall in India but this is not a fixed rule. There are historical records shows inconsistency of such trends since severe droughts happened in years such as 1982, 1987, 2002 and 2009 which coincided with El Nino. Some droughts such as 1986, 2004 and 2014 occurred with a declared El Nino. Some droughts, such as 1986, 2004, and 2014, occurred without a declared El Niño, reported The Economic Times. Effects On Indian Agriculture El Niño usually makes the southwest monsoon weaker and causes drought-like conditions in India, which hurts farming by making the rain fall in strange ways. This warming in the Pacific often leads to lower crop yields (especially rice, pulses, and oilseeds), lower water reservoir levels, and lower farm income, which can lead to food inflation.