The US tariff rollback has triggered a $166 billion refund process after the Supreme Court struck down Trump-era duties imposed under IEEPA.
Around 53% of India’s exports to the US were impacted, with textiles, engineering goods, and chemicals accounting for a major share.
Since only US importers can claim refunds, Indian exporters must rely on commercial negotiations to capture any financial benefit.
$166 Bn Tariff Refund Opens Door for India — But Gains Hinge on Tough Negotiations
US Supreme Court’s tariff rollback triggers massive refund process, but Indian exporters may benefit only if they can secure a share from American importers
US President Donald Trump X/@WhiteHouse
Summary
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A sweeping rollback of tariffs in the United States has triggered a refund process worth about $166 billion, but the financial gains for Indian exporters remain uncertain and will largely depend on negotiations with American buyers, Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI) said in a report.
Refund claims opened on April 20 via CAPE (Consolidated Administration and Processing of Entries), a digital platform run by US Customs and Border Protection.
Despite the scale of the refunds, the framework does not allow Indian exporters to claim funds directly.
Eligibility to file claims rests solely with US-based importers that originally paid the tariffs, leaving foreign exporters without a direct legal route to recover the duties.
Although refunds will include interest and are expected to be processed within 60–90 days, any financial benefit for Indian companies will depend on commercial arrangements with their US partners.
“To get refunds, US importers must file detailed claims with shipment data, tariff lines and proof of payment. Approved claims, with interest, are expected within 60–90 days. Only those who paid the tariffs -- mainly US importers and companies -- can claim refunds,” GTRI said.
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According to the think tank, about 53% of India’s exports to the US were impacted, particularly in labour-intensive segments such as textiles and apparel.
These sectors are expected to account for nearly $4 billion in refunds linked to Indian trade. Engineering goods could generate a similar value, while chemicals may contribute roughly $2 billion, with smaller amounts distributed across other sectors.
However, the absence of a direct claims mechanism for exporters complicates the outlook. Since refunds will be disbursed only to US importers, Indian firms will have to depend on negotiations to secure any share of the returned duties.
Negotiations Remain Critical
For Indian exporters, the potential upside hinges more on commercial leverage than policy changes. Companies that priced contracts on a duty-paid basis may be able to renegotiate terms with US buyers. Possible approaches include seeking partial sharing of refunds, revising pricing structures, issuing credit adjustments, or restructuring future contracts to reflect the removal of tariff costs.
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Exporters with stronger bargaining power — particularly in textiles and engineering goods — could be better placed to capture value through immediate settlements or improved pricing in upcoming orders. Ultimately, the extent to which India benefits will depend on how effectively exporters translate the US legal shift into tangible commercial gains.