Who Will Succeed Khamenei? Inside Iran’s Race for the Supreme Leadership

The Supreme Leader of Iran, Ayatollah Khamenei, has been declared dead after an intense attack involving the US and Israel in West Asia. The death of Khamenei now raises critical questions about the future of the country, which has been seeing political and social unrest in recent weeks owing to dissatisfaction with the government.

However, succession is a complex issue in the political landscape of Iran’s theocratic history.

Operation Epic Fury

Rising to power in 1989, the 86-year-old leader was facing political pressure domestically and from regional and global powers. In recent weeks, threats from Washington mounted over its nuclear program, with US President Donald Trump openly calling for regime change in Iran. The US has been deploying its biggest military build-up since 2003 and warned that Washington will attack Iran over the nuclear issue if it is not resolved.

In a military strike named ‘Operation Epic Fury,’ Trump announced Khamenei’s death in a post on Truth Social, describing him as “one of the most evil people in history.” On the social media platform Truth Social, Trump wrote that the death of Khamenei was the “single greatest chance for the Iranian people to take back their country,” highlighting the event as a turning point.

What Happens Now?

As per reports, a clerical council selects a new supreme leader. An 88-member panel, the Assembly of Experts, then appoints the supreme leader. The Assembly of Experts consists entirely of Shiite clerics, elected every eight years, whose candidacies are approved by the Guardian Council. In case of a delay, a temporary leadership council may assume duties. The constitution states that the panel “must, as soon as possible,” select the next leader.

Candidates for the Assembly are vetted by the Guardian Council. Members of the Guardian Council are themselves directly or indirectly chosen by the Supreme Leader, creating a closed loop within the country’s power structure.

Who’s Likely Next?

As per reports, Khamenei’s son is a likely contender, though he has never held government office. However, a transfer of power to an heir in the case of supreme leadership may trigger anger and discontent among the population, as Iranians have already voiced opposition to clerical rule.

According to a Hindustan Times report citing the Council on Foreign Relations, a US-based think tank, other contenders include Hojjat-ol-Eslam Mohsen Qomi, a close adviser to Khamenei who is seen as a trusted insider.

Other names include Ayatollah Alireza Arafi and Ayatollah Mohsen Araki, who are both members of the Assembly of Experts. Arafi’s appointment would likely preserve the existing political structure, while Araki is often cited in succession discussions, as per reports.

Ayatollah Gholam Hossein Mohseni Ejei, the incumbent head of Iran’s judiciary, and Ayatollah Hashem Hosseini Bushehri, the Friday prayer leader in Qom, are also considered possible contenders.

Following the announcement, reports have emerged of celebrations in certain Iranian cities, while other areas, including Mashhad and Tehran, have witnessed scenes of mourning. The West Asian regional  landscape remains highly tense, with Iran’s Revolutionary Guard (IRGC) pledging “severe” retaliation and reports indicating that strikes have already taken place across the Gulf.