WMO warns possible El Niño development later this year may affect India’s monsoon.
IMD reports above-normal temperatures across north and peninsular India amid heatwave conditions.
Experts say forecasts remain uncertain, clearer El Niño outlook likely by June.
El Nino May Weaken India’s Monsoon Amid Forecast of Hotter Months: Report
WMO flags possible El Nino development later this year with rising global heat signals
Rising global temperatures and potential El Nino conditions could impact India’s monsoon rainfall
Summary
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The latest update published by the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) on the possibility of an El Nino episode later this year could negatively impact rains during the Indian monsoon.
Though, experts said it would be premature to say anything definite at this juncture, an El Nino year usually negatively impacts rains during the monsoon.
The update also said that there is a widespread global signal for above-average land surface temperatures during March-May 2026 due to various climatic factors. This is already being felt in India, which has been facing heat wave to severe heat wave conditions.
Meanwhile, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) on March 10 stated that day temperatures remained above normal by 5-7 degree Celsius over Jammu & Kashmir and Himachal Pradesh till March 10. The IMD further predicted that the day temperatures are likely to remain 4-6 degree Celsius above normal over plains of northwest India, including Delhi-NCR; Gujarat and Madhya Pradesh during the next three days.
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Monsoon Uncertainty Ahead
The met department predicted above normal day temperatures by 2-3 degrees Celsius over southeast Peninsular India during the next five days.
“El Nino is expected to develop by the second half of the season. As the current predictions suggest it could be a moderate El Nino. However, predictions at this time have large uncertainties. Better idea about El Nino will be known by June. So at present we need not panic but closely monitor the situation.” Madhavan Rajeevan, Former Secretary, Ministry of Earth Sciences, told Times of India.
What is El Nino?
El Nino refers to the periodic large-scale warming of the ocean surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, coupled with changes in the tropical atmospheric circulation, including changes in winds, pressure and rainfall patterns. It usually has the opposite effects of La Nina, which is linked to good monsoon rainfall in the India sub-continent.
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“The WMO community will be carefully monitoring conditions in the coming months to inform decision-making. The most recent El Nino, in 2023-24, was one of the five strongest on record and it played a role in the record global temperatures we saw in 2024,” WMO secretary-general Celeste Saulo stated in the news release.
“Seasonal forecasts for El Nino and La Nina help us avert millions of dollars in economic losses and are essential planning tools for climate-sensitive sectors like agriculture, health, energy and water management,” Saulo added.
According to last week’s forecasts from the WMO Global Producing Centre, the chance of an El Nino increases steadily to around 40% during May-July period. However, forecast uncertainty increases at longer lead times. Predictions issued at this time of year are typically less reliable due to the so-called boreal spring predictability barrier, a well-known limitation affecting ENSO outlook skill.