India’s New GDP Series Debuts Today; GST Cuts Keep Q3 Outlook Optimistic

India will release its third-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) numbers later today — a particularly significant moment as the government unveils the first estimates based on a revised base year of 2022–23, replacing the earlier 2011–12 series.

With the shift to a new base year, economists are watching closely to see whether India’s GDP growth will continue to hover near the 8% mark or whether the new methodology will reveal signs of moderation.

The updated GDP framework introduces substantial methodological changes, most notably a far greater reliance on administrative tax data such as the Goods and Services Tax (GST). Because GST collections tend to move in tandem with formal-sector demand, analysts say a consumption and compliance uptick driven by GST rationalisation could lift headline GDP readings.

The revision reflects a broader move by the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI) towards integrating high-frequency administrative datasets to improve coverage, timeliness and internal consistency in national accounts. A sub-committee on new data sources had recommended the systematic use of GST data from the Goods and Services Tax Network (GSTN), which now plays a central role in the compilation process.

Under the revised methodology, GST return data becomes a key input for estimating private-corporate output, refining the corporate-sector universe, allocating gross value added (GVA) across states and strengthening quarterly GDP estimates. The new series also incorporates e-Vahan vehicle-registration data and captures household services provided by cooks, drivers and domestic workers — improving measurement of the informal and household economy.

A report by Union Bank of India said Q3 FY26 GDP growth likely remained elevated at 8.3%, driven by demand following the GST rate cut, even as it contended with an unfavourable base effect.

MoSPI revises base years roughly every five years, though the previous revision was delayed due to the Covid-19 pandemic and the implementation of GST. The ministry said the latest changes will enhance the precision of GDP deflators used in the new series.

The base-year revision of the Wholesale Price Index (WPI) is still underway. Until the updated WPI becomes available, the existing index will continue to be used as a deflator — though its application has changed. In the new series, the WPI is applied at a more granular level to better reflect price dynamics across sectors.