India's Monsoon Deficit Has Crossed 42%. Here's Why Farmers Are Worried

With India facing a rainfall deficit of around 42% as of June 23 and signs of an emerging El Niño weather pattern, the Centre has stepped up preparations to protect kharif crop production and minimise the impact of a potentially weak monsoon season.

Agriculture Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan on Tuesday reviewed the country's monsoon preparedness and directed states to strengthen contingency planning in districts vulnerable to low rainfall and irrigation shortages.

The government has identified 315 districts that could face agricultural stress if rainfall remains below normal during the crucial sowing season.

El Niño conditions are typically associated with weaker monsoon rains in India and have historically affected agricultural output, particularly for rain-fed kharif crops such as soybean, pulses and coarse cereals.

Government Targets Normal Kharif Output

Despite concerns over rainfall, the government has retained its kharif foodgrain production target at approximately 176 million tonnes for the 2026 season, in line with last year's output.

Officials noted that sowing activity has remained largely resilient so far. As of June 22, kharif crops had been planted across 11.99 million hectares, slightly higher than the 11.79 million hectares recorded during the corresponding period last year.

However, soybean sowing has emerged as an area of concern, with Chouhan acknowledging that planting of the oilseed crop is currently lagging behind normal levels.

315 Districts Mapped for Vulnerability

The Agriculture Ministry and the Indian Council of Agricultural Research (ICAR) have jointly conducted a scientific assessment to identify districts most exposed to monsoon-related risks.

The exercise analysed factors such as historical rainfall patterns, irrigation coverage and local climatic conditions to determine vulnerability levels.

Of the 315 districts identified, 111 districts have been categorised as high priority, with irrigation coverage below 25%, making them particularly vulnerable to prolonged rainfall deficits.

Another 76 districts have been placed in the medium-priority category, with irrigation coverage ranging between 25% and 50%.

The remaining 128 districts are considered relatively less vulnerable due to better access to irrigation infrastructure, reservoirs and other water sources.

The districts are spread across several major agricultural states, including Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Gujarat, Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan, Karnataka, Bihar, Jharkhand, Telangana, Andhra Pradesh and Odisha.

District-Level Contingency Plans

To mitigate the risks posed by deficient rainfall, ICAR has prepared district-specific contingency plans that can be activated if monsoon conditions deteriorate further.

These plans include recommendations on alternative crop varieties, revised sowing schedules, water conservation measures and crop diversification strategies aimed at reducing losses for farmers in rain-fed regions.

During the review meeting, Chouhan emphasised the importance of efficient water management, scientific farming practices and timely implementation of contingency measures to safeguard agricultural production and farmer incomes in the event of a prolonged monsoon shortfall.