Iran Conflict Emits More Carbon in Two Weeks Than Iceland in a Year: Report

The United States and Israel's assault on Iran has killed civilians, destroyed critical infrastructure and triggered a global energy crisis, with significant impact on the environment. The conflict generated more greenhouse gas emissions than Iceland produces in an entire year, according to the Climate and Community Institute (CCI) report.

The CCI report estimated that the first 14 days of assault produced over 5mn tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2e), which is higher than the total climate pollution of Iceland in 2024. This figure is also equivalent to the emissions from 1.1mn petrol cars on the road for a year and amounts to more than $1.3bn in climate damage, according to The Guardian.

The study attributed the bulk of emissions to the destruction of civilian infrastructure and fuel. Destroyed homes and buildings accounted for roughly 2.4mn tonnes of CO2e, followed by burning or destroyed fuel at about 1.88mn tonnes. Fuel consumed in combat operations contributed around 529,000 tonnes, while emissions embedded in military equipment, missiles and drones made up the remainder.

The authors warned that these figures capture only the earliest phase of the conflict. Emissions are expected to rise sharply as military operations continue, driven particularly by uncontrolled fires at oil infrastructure, the replenishment of weapons stocks and the deployment of additional naval forces. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz and damage to refineries and tankers could further intensify both the economic and environmental toll.

“Every refinery fire and tanker strike is a reminder that fossil‑fuelled geopolitics is incompatible with a liveable planet," Patrick Bigger, study co-author and CCI research director told The Guardian. "This war shows, yet again, that the fastest way to supercharge the climate crisis is to let fossil fuel interests dictate foreign policy," Bigger added.

Conflict’s Climate Fallout

Assessing the environmental impacts from armed conflict, especially greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, is an often overlooked and under-researched dimension of the humanitarian and economic damage of war.

In addition to the immediate conflict, studies have also highlighted the broader emissions footprint of war. According to a report published by Science Direct, emissions from the open conflict surpassed 1.3mn tons CO2 equiv by January 2025. When accounting for emissions generated pre and post conflict activities (such as defensive fence construction and post-war reconstruction), the number increases to 33.2mn tons CO2e.

Previous conflicts, including those in Gaza and Ukraine, have reflected that the cost of rebuilding can generate emissions comparable to, or far greater than, wartime activity.