India needs to raise exports from $863 billion in FY26 to $2 trillion by FY31, with merchandise and services each targeted at $1 trillion.
The Commerce Ministry has called for stronger domestic supply chains, greater manufacturing resilience and reduced dependence on concentrated global sources for critical inputs.
India’s existing FTAs offer greater market access, but exporters need to use them more aggressively while Indian manufacturers move from “standard takers” to “standard setters.”
India’s $2 Trillion Export Dream: Why Incremental Growth Won’t Be Enough
India’s exports reached a record $863 billion in FY26, but hitting the government’s $2 trillion target by FY31 will require deeper manufacturing capabilities, resilient supply chains and greater use of global trade agreements
AI Generated Image
Summary
Advertisement
India will need to more than double its current export trajectory and undertake a structural transformation of its manufacturing and supply chains to achieve the $2 trillion export target by FY31, Commerce Ministry Additional Secretary Yashvir Singh said on Thursday.
Speaking at the CII Manufacturing Conclave in New Delhi, Singh said India must strengthen domestic supply chains, improve manufacturing resilience and reduce vulnerabilities in critical inputs to sustain faster export growth.
“Let us not be China plus one. Let us be India, the trusted partner, the resilient manufacturer and the next great engine of global growth,” Singh said.
India’s total exports reached a record $863 billion in FY26, up from around $468 billion in FY15. The government’s FY31 target envisages merchandise exports reaching $1 trillion and services exports another $1 trillion.
Global Trade Faces Growing Strains
Singh's comments come as geopolitical tensions and protectionist policies reshape global trade. He pointed to strains within the World Trade Organization, including the continued paralysis of its appellate body, disputes at ministerial conferences and the increasing use of reciprocal tariffs.
Advertisement
He also flagged the concentration of critical manufacturing and supply chains in a limited number of countries as a potential economic security risk. Areas such as critical minerals, active pharmaceutical ingredients and electronic components remain vulnerable to supply disruptions, making greater domestic capacity important for India.
FTAs Need Greater Industry Participation
Singh urged Indian companies to make greater use of the market access created through the country's existing free trade agreements.
“Every FTA we have signed is a door, but doors, however magnificently crafted, do not open themselves. It is industry that must walk through them,” he said.
India is pursuing additional trade agreements while seeking to expand access to major international markets. Singh also called on domestic manufacturers to move from being “standard takers” to “standard setters”, citing platforms such as UPI and ONDC as examples of Indian-developed systems that could influence international market structures.
Manufacturing To Drive Export Expansion
Merchandise exports stood at around $442 billion in FY26, while services exports reached approximately $421 billion. In FY25, total exports were $824.9 billion, comprising $437.42 billion in merchandise and $387.5 billion in services.
Advertisement
Among India's leading merchandise export categories in FY25 were engineering goods at $116.67 billion, petroleum products at $63.34 billion, electronic goods at $38.58 billion, drugs and pharmaceuticals at $27.91 billion, and gems and jewellery at $26.18 billion.
The US, UAE, Netherlands, UK and China remained among India's major export destinations.
Reaching the $2 trillion goal, Singh's remarks suggest, will therefore require more than incremental gains in existing sectors. India will need deeper domestic supply chains, stronger manufacturing capabilities, wider market access and greater participation by Indian companies in global production networks.