World May Breach 1.5 degrees Celsius Limit More Often by 2030, Warns WMO

Global average temperatures are expected to persist at or near record-breaking levels during the five-year period from 2026 to 2030, according to a report published by the World Meteorological Organization, produced by the UK’s Met Office.

The WMO report predicted that annual mean near-surface temperatures will range between 1.3 degrees Celsius and 1.9 degrees Celsius above the 1850-1900 average. Data indicated an 86% probability that at least one year in this timeframe will surpass 2024 to become the warmest year ever recorded.

In addition, there is a 91% chance that the global mean temperature will temporarily exceed 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels for at least one year. A 75% probability exists that the five-year mean for 2026-2030 will also exceed this 1.5 degrees Celsius threshold.

While these temporary exceedances occur more frequently as the planet warms, they do not signify a permanent breach of the long-term goals established in the Paris Agreement. A predicted El Niño event at the end of 2026 further increases the risk of 2027 becoming a record-breaking year.

Regional Weather Patterns Shift

Arctic temperature anomalies are forecast to be significantly higher than the global mean. Over the next five northern hemisphere winters, Arctic temperatures are predicted to be 2.8 degrees Celsius above the 1991-2020 average, a rate more than three and a half times the global average anomaly.

This warming will likely cause further sea-ice reductions in the Barents, Bering and Okhotsk seas. Global precipitation patterns are also expected to change significantly. High latitudes and the tropics will likely see increased rainfall, while subtropics may see reductions. Wetter conditions are predicted for the Sahel, northern Europe, Alaska and Siberia. In contrast, the Amazon is expected to experience dry anomalies.

Southeastern Europe, which has recently been anomalously dry, is forecast to have higher precipitation during the 2026-2030 period. This report synthesises predictions from thirteen international institutes to assist national weather services.

Climate Records Accelerate

According to a 2025 report by the United Nations Environment Programme, current global climate policies could still lead to nearly 2.3 degrees Celsius-2.5 degrees Celsius warming by the end of this century.

Scientists cited by Reuters have also warned that recurring breaches of the 1.5 degrees Celsius threshold are increasing risks of extreme heatwaves, floods, droughts and ecosystem disruption worldwide.