The Singapore Institute of International Affairs has raised its haze risk assessment to the highest level, warning of a severe haze episode across Southeast Asia.
Hotter temperatures, weaker rainfall and a positive Indian Ocean Dipole could create one of the driest seasons on record, increasing fire risks.
Fire hotspots in Indonesia and Malaysia have reached seven-year highs, while Thailand has recorded its highest hotspot count in a decade.
El Niño Weather Warning: Southeast Asia Faces Rising Risk of Uncontrolled Fires
A developing El Niño, coupled with drought-inducing weather patterns and rising fire risks, could trigger a severe transboundary haze episode across Southeast Asia later this year
by freepik
Summary
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Southeast Asia could face a severe haze season later this year as El Niño-driven heat and dry weather increase the risk of widespread fires across the region, according to a report by the Singapore Institute of International Affairs (SIIA) cited by Bloomberg.
The think tank has raised its haze risk assessment for 2026 to "high"—the highest of its three categories—for the first time since 2023. The warning applies to Singapore, Indonesia, Malaysia and Brunei, with August and September expected to be the peak danger period.
El Niño and Drought Risks
According to the report, the developing El Niño weather pattern is expected to intensify in the coming months, bringing hotter temperatures and below-normal rainfall across much of Southeast Asia.
The risk could be compounded by the positive phase of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), another climate phenomenon associated with reduced rainfall and drought conditions in the region.
"Weather conditions in the remaining months of 2026 could potentially be one of the hottest and driest dry seasons on record, increasing the danger that fires could spread out of control," the SIIA said in its report, according to Bloomberg.
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Meteorological forecasts are already pointing to drier-than-normal conditions.
The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts estimates there is at least a 70% chance that large parts of Indonesia and Malaysia will receive rainfall in the lowest 20% of historical levels through October.
Why Haze Remains a Concern
Haze is a recurring problem in Southeast Asia and is largely linked to land-clearing fires used for agricultural activities, particularly in palm oil-growing regions.
Smoke from these fires frequently crosses national borders, affecting air quality in neighbouring countries and disrupting economic activity. The region experienced one of its worst haze crises in 2015, when fires in Indonesia forced school closures, flight diversions and the cancellation of outdoor events across parts of Southeast Asia.
According to Bloomberg, the disaster caused an estimated $16 billion in economic losses in Indonesia and triggered diplomatic tensions among regional governments.
"There is a real risk of a severe haze episode this year. The key driver is the weather," SIIA Chairman Simon Tay said ahead of the report's release.
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Economic Pressures Add to Risks
The report also highlighted non-weather factors that could increase fire risks. Rising fertiliser and energy costs following the Iran conflict may encourage some agricultural producers to use fire as a cheaper land-clearing method.
In addition, growing demand for biofuels could accelerate slash-and-burn deforestation practices, while budget pressures may force governments to reduce spending on fire prevention and monitoring programmes.
Warning signs have already emerged. Fire hotspots in key palm oil-producing areas of Indonesia and Malaysia have risen to their highest levels in seven years, while Thailand recorded its highest hotspot count in a decade earlier this year, raising concerns that the region could be heading toward another severe haze season.