Donald Trump Eyes Iran’s Kharg Island; Analysts Predict $200 Oil Scenario

US President Donald Trump has suggested that Washington could “take the oil in Iran” and potentially seize Kharg Island, significantly escalating tensions in an already volatile energy landscape.

In an interview with the Financial Times, Trump said the US had multiple options, including targeting Kharg Island — a critical node that handles roughly 90% of Iran’s crude exports.

“Maybe we take Kharg Island, maybe we don’t. We have a lot of options,” Trump said, adding that any such move would likely require a sustained US presence on the island.

He also drew parallels with US policy towards Venezuela, signalling a willingness to exert long-term control over strategic oil assets, even describing the idea of controlling Iran’s oil as his “favourite thing”, while dismissing critics at home as "stupid people".

Trump’s remarks come amid a wider US military build-up in the region, with troop deployments under way and contingency planning for potential ground operations. The Pentagon has ordered the deployment of about 10,000 troops trained for ground operations, with thousands already arriving, including Marines and units from the 82nd Airborne Division.

Oil Market Shock

Markets reacted swiftly to the rhetoric. Oil prices surged sharply, with Brent crude rising above $115–$120 per barrel as fears of supply disruption intensified.

A CNN report indicated that Iran has already reinforced defences around Kharg Island, deploying additional military personnel and air defence systems in anticipation of a possible US operation.

Iranian officials have issued stark warnings in response. The country’s parliamentary leadership has said its forces are prepared to retaliate against any US incursion, vowing severe consequences for American troops entering Iranian territory.

Investment bank Macquarie has warned that crude prices could surge to $200 per barrel under a prolonged disruption scenario involving the closure of key shipping routes.