Rupee Gains Sharply as US-Iran Ceasefire Deal Eases Oil Supply Concerns

The Indian rupee strengthened sharply on June 15 after the United States and Iran reached a ceasefire agreement, easing concerns over global oil supply disruptions and lifting sentiment across financial markets.

The rupee was trading at ₹94.35 against the US dollar during the session, compared with ₹95.11 in the previous close, marking one of its strongest levels in over a month.

The gains came after US President Donald Trump announced that Washington and Tehran had finalised a ceasefire agreement, signalling an end to military tensions that had unsettled global commodity markets in recent weeks.

Oil Prices Drop After Ceasefire Deal

The announcement triggered a sharp fall in oil prices. Brent crude, which had climbed above $90 per barrel amid concerns over supply disruptions, fell more than 4% overnight to around $83 per barrel.

The easing of tensions and reduced risks to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz helped improve sentiment, with concerns over crude oil availability and pricing cooling. According to Jateen Trivedi, VP Research Analyst – Commodity and Currency at LKP Securities, “the removal of supply disruptions has eased concerns over crude oil availability and pricing, providing substantial relief to oil-importing economies such as India.”

He added that the normalisation of crude flows through Hormuz is expected to reduce pressure on India’s import bill, improve current account expectations and support capital market sentiment, which has helped strengthen the rupee over the past few sessions.

Announcing the development on Truth Social, Trump wrote, “The Deal with the Islamic Republic of Iran is now complete. Congratulations to all! I hereby fully authorize the toll free opening of the Strait of Hormuz, and, simultaneously herewith, authorize the immediate removal of the United States Naval blockade. Ships of the World, start your engines. Let the oil flow!”

Trump also said that with the opening of the Strait upon the signing of the deal on Friday, for purposes of mine removal, oil would flow on both ends again for the region and the world.

RBI Measures Add Further Support

Apart from improving global sentiment, the rupee had already been gaining ground after recent measures announced by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to attract more foreign capital.

The central bank recently relaxed rules around overseas deposits and external commercial borrowings, steps that could potentially bring more than $50 billion into the country.

Trivedi noted that the rupee is now approaching a key resistance zone near 94.80–94.00, with support seen around 95.00. He said a sustained move below 94.80 could pave the way for further appreciation towards 94.00 and potentially 93.50 in the coming weeks, depending on developments around the Strait of Hormuz.