Gold Climbs as Ukraine-Russia Tensions Escalate, Analysts See Volatility Ahead

Gold price levels climbed higher as tensions over the Russia-Ukraine conflict surged. While the yellow commodity treaded lower last week, geopolitical tension intensified during the weekend resulting in a gap-up opening in the MCX. In the Delhi NCR region, the price of 24-carat gold (per 10 grams) stood at ₹97,790 level mark, as per GoodReturns.

For the week ahead, analysts are expecting heightened volatility ahead with key data releases this week. "This week will be eventful for bullion prices, and we expect some volatility as the market awaits Russia's response. We also have the Fed Chairman’s speech today, ISM manufacturing data, and non-farm payroll data, which may move prices significantly," said Deveya Gaglani, senior research analyst- commodities, Axis Securities.

While gold prices have stayed elevated so far this year, the price levels dipped last month as investor sentiment improved amid hopes of relief on the tariff front. However, it didn’t take long for the trend to reverse.

Trump's tariff flip-flopping continues to haunt the global trade sphere. The US president has already announced that steel tariffs will be doubled from 25% to 50%. Meanwhile, China has accused the US of "severely violating" the trade truce. All these events have pushed investor demand for the safe-haven asset higher.

Last week, when the US trade court blocked Trump's tariff directives, investors hoped uncertainty would begin to ease. However, that optimism faded after the US appeals court temporarily stayed the lower court's ruling, reviving fears of an uncertain outlook.

Key Levels to Watch Out

While tariff worries loom, escalating tensions between Russia and Ukraine are likely to have a greater impact on gold prices. Just last week, Ukraine launched a major drone attack on Russian military airbases.

"This escalation triggered safe-haven buying, lifting Comex gold by $50 to $3,350 and MCX gold by ₹1,300 to ₹97,250," said Jateen Trivedi, VP research analyst-commodity and currency, LKP Securities.

"With safe-haven momentum returning and a heavy data calendar ahead, gold may look to test the $3,400 level. Support is seen at $3,250 on Comex and ₹94,000 on MCX, while resistance is expected between ₹98,500–₹99,000," Trivedi added.