Russian Oil Flows to India Near Record High as US Extends Waiver Amid Hormuz Tensions

Russian oil sales to India are set to remain near record highs in April and May following the extension of a US waiver, Reuters reported, citing sources and data. The US initially granted a 30-day waiver in early March to prevent global crude prices from surging toward the psychologically crucial level of $150 per barrel.

India emerged as one of the largest buyers of Russian crude after Moscow began offering discounted oil following the Ukraine invasion in 2022. However, New Delhi faced backlash from the US and other Western allies for indirectly supporting Moscow’s oil revenues amid the war.

Due to tightening supply and reduced production from West Asia, Russia is now selling oil at a premium. Indian refiners are paying premiums of $5–$7 per barrel over Brent crude for cargoes scheduled for delivery in May.

According to the report, Russian supplies are expected to average over 2 million barrels per day (bpd) for the full month and are projected to remain at similar, if not higher, levels in May. Data from Kpler shows Russian crude arrivals are expected to reach 2.1 million bpd for the week ending April 27.

Washington Extends Waiver

Washington renewed the 30-day waiver last week, allowing countries to continue purchasing sanctioned Russian oil for another month. The waiver permits the purchase of Russian crude and petroleum products loaded onto vessels through May 16. However, the waiver does not apply to sanctions related to Iran, Cuba, and North Korea. “As negotiations with Iran accelerate, Treasury wants to ensure oil is available to those who need it,” Reuters reported, citing a US Treasury Department spokesperson.

UN Prepares Hormuz Evacuation Plan

The International Maritime Organization (IMO) is preparing a potential evacuation plan for hundreds of ships stranded in the Strait of Hormuz amid heightened geopolitical tensions and supply chain risks. According to reports citing Secretary-General Arsenio Dominguez, the plan can only be executed once there are clear signs of de-escalation.

Vessel transits and crew movements would follow the long-established Traffic Separation Scheme, proposed by Iran and Oman and adopted by the IMO in 1968. Iran has already indicated the possibility of diverting traffic through Omani waters and other alternative routes. While peace talks between Iran and the US are ongoing, the likelihood of a longer-term ceasefire and a swift normalization of supply chains remains uncertain.