In Depth

Why India’s Growth Story is a House of Cards

Weak private consumption, which in turn slows private investment, has emerged as a significant flaw in India’s growth narrative

House of Cards
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Introduction

India’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate for the December quarter of the fiscal year 2023–24 has astounded observers, reaching 8.4%, a figure that even the Reserve Bank of India was not expecting. Currently when eurozone economies are stagnant and China, the second-biggest economy, faces headwinds, India’s growth is perhaps the only bright spot in a world racked by geopolitical tensions.

“Robust 8.4% GDP growth in the third quarter of 2023–24 shows the strength of Indian economy and its potential. Our efforts will continue to bring fast economic growth which shall help 140 crore Indians lead a better life and create a Viksit Bharat,” Prime Minister Narendra Modi posted on X (formerly Twitter).

There has been considerable debate regarding the reliability of GDP data in recent quarters, with critics suggesting potential inflation through methodological jugglery. The latest data sets have received similar criticism, with some pointing to the disparity between gross value added (GVA) and GDP.