Legal Risk of Overreliance on Carbon Dioxide Removal Could Jeopardise Net Zero, Says Report

The carbon dioxide removal (CDR) will be an essential component of global climate action, heavy dependence on future removals would pose significant risks if used as a substitute for ambitious shorter-term emissions cuts, according to a new interdisciplinary study led by University of Oxford researchers.

Carbon dioxide removal means taking CO2 out of the air and storing it (for example, by planting trees) so it no longer adds to global warming.

The report published in the journal Climate Policy in December 2025 further argued that international legal standards now required countires to pursue deep and rapid greenhouse gas reductions while taking a precautionary approach to large-scale CDR technologies, cautioning against strategies that risk prolonged overshoot of the Paris Agreement’s 1.5 degrees Celsius temperature goal.

Study author Professor Lavanya Rajamani, of Oxford’s Faculty of Law, stated in the news release, “In an uncertain world, some states are gambling on the future deployment of CDR techniques to meet their climate targets in place of more ambitious near-term mitigation measures. This approach risks overshooting the Paris temperature goal and causing serious, pervasive and irreversible climate harms. Our findings emphasise that near-term emissions reductions and feasible CDR strategies are not only ethical imperatives – they are legal requirements.”

Co-author Dr Rupert Stuart-Smith, of the Oxford Sustainable Law Programme and the University’s Smith School of Enterprise and the Environment, asserted in the news release, “States increasingly plan to meet their climate targets through large-scale removals, yet many of these plans rest on unclear assumptions and technologies that may not materialise. Legal guardrails are essential to avoid passing climate risks on to future generations and to ensure that CDR does not substitute for the emissions reductions urgently needed now.”

The report further recommended countries to prioritise emissions reductions over removals, ensure that any CDR strategy is technically and socially feasible, minimise adverse impacts and avoiding overreliance on removals carried out abroad (known as international credits). In addition, providing transparent information on projected emissions and removals, distinguishing between different types of CDR, and disclosing the assumptions underlying long-term mitigation strategies should be a part of the strategy.

India’s Policy Crossroads

India climate strategy is coupling long-term carbon removal alongside emissions reduction commitments. Government roadmaps on net-zero pathways, emerging carbon markets and nature-based solutions are shaping how removals may be deployed domestically. As the regulatory architecture evolves, legal clarity around safeguards and accountability is becoming critical for India’s climate credibility.

According to Climate Action Tracker report, India’s Energy Conservation (Amendment) Act, 2022 provides a legal basis for a domestic carbon market that the country is set to launch by mid-2026 with an aim to set emissions intensity and targets for energy-intensive industrial sectors, building on the earlier Perform, Achieve, and Trade (PAT) system, but will not impose absolute emissions reduction caps.

Furthering to this initiative, India’s Nationally Determined Contributions include enhancing forest and tree cover to create additional carbon sinks, while nature-based solutions are increasingly promoted as part of mitigation and adaptation strategies to help achieve its emissions targets.

According to a PwC report, Nature-based solutions (NBSs) are being used for climate mitigation and adaptation. The report stated that NBCs have the potential to help meet about 37% of climate change mitigation targets required until 2030 to achieve the goals of the Paris Agreement. In the Indian context, adoption of NBC-related climate change mitigation activities is crucial to ensure sustainable growth while achieving country’s climate goals. For instance, India's Mangrove Initiative for Shoreline Habitats and Tangible Incomes (MISHTI) demonstrates the benefits of NBSs by protecting mangroves for flood control, climate adaptation and community well-being. The five-year scheme covers an area of 540 km2 across India.