Northeast Monsoon Delayed in India, Above-Normal October Rains May Hit Crops

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) said that the Northeast Monsoon (NEM) will arrive about a week late, mainly affecting the southern states. This delay is attributed to the delayed withdrawal of Southwest Monsoon from the subcontinent as low pressure systems forming in the Bay of Bengal continue to bring rainfall to eastern, central and western states of the country, reported The New Indian Express.

The NEM usually begins in mid-October and continues till mid-December, bringing rainfall to five southern regions, such as Tamil Nadu, Coastal Andhra Pradesh, Rayalaseema, Kerala, and South Interior Karnataka. The usual date for the complete withdrawal of SWM from India is October 15.

Citing IMD’s forecast, The New Indian Express further reported that an above-normal rainfall is expected across India for October. According to the IMD, most of the country could see above-normal rainfall, with the exception of a few isolated areas in the northwest and the south and northeast. Rainfall in these areas may range from normal to below normal.

In its assessment of Southwest Monsoon 2025 (June-September), IMD stated that the Southwest Monsoon was above normal and well-distributed. The country received 8% above-normal rainfall with 937.2 mm of actual rainfall compared to the normal 868.6 mm.

IMD also elaborated that the above-normal rainfall during the monsoon was due to a higher number of low-pressure systems (LPS) than usual, with 18 LPS forming and lasting 69 days, compared to the normal of 13 LPS lasting 55 days. In addition, ENSO conditions remained neutral while approaching the threshold level for La Niña. A weaker Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) also contributed to the favorable rainfall conditions.

Impact on Crops in India

India is expected to experience above-average rainfall in October which could damage summer-sown crops such as rice, cotton, soybeans, corn and pulses, which are getting ready for harvest, reported Reuters.

The country is likely to receive above-average rainfall of more than 115% of the 50-year average in October, Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, Director-General of the India Meteorological Department (IMD), told a virtual news conference.

According to a 2023 Science Direct study, the seasonal monsoon is the lifeblood of India’s $4 trillion economy, supplying almost 70% of the rainfall needed to water farms and replenish aquifers and reservoirs.